Stone (STNE) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Analysts consensus points to Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of R$2.25, up 14% from R$1.97 in Q1 2025.
• Revenue estimates stand at R$3.54 billion, amid focus on total payment volume (TPV) expansion in Brazil's micro, small, and medium-sized businesses (MSMB) segment.
• Company's full-year 2026 guidance targets adjusted gross profit of R$6.6-7.0 billion and adjusted EPS of R$10.8-11.4 per share.
• StoneCo shares are down about 17% year-to-date in 2026, despite strong 2025 results.
• Investors watching for updates on software solutions growth and credit portfolio performance.
• Recent extraordinary dividend signals confidence in cash generation.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

StoneCo Ltd., a leading Brazilian fintech providing payment processing, banking, and software solutions, faces heightened scrutiny as it approaches Q1 2026 earnings on May 14. The report will shed light on sustained momentum from 2025, when adjusted gross profit rose 13.5% year-over-year to R$6.319 billion and EPS showed double-digit growth. Amid Brazil's digital payment surge and economic recovery, this quarter tests StoneCo's ability to grow TPV while improving margins in its core MSMB segment. For investors, beats on profitability could reinforce the stock's undervaluation, especially after a YTD decline, while guidance reaffirmation may drive re-rating versus peers.

Earnings Expectations

Wall Street anticipates Q1 2026 revenue of R$3.54 billion (7 analysts) and adjusted EPS of R$2.25, reflecting about 14% earnings growth from Q1 2025's R$1.97 and R$3.67 billion revenue. Key metrics under the spotlight include TPV growth, expected in the mid-teens annually per prior commentary, and adjusted gross profit trajectory toward full-year guidance of R$6.6-7.0 billion. Investors will parse segment details: payments take rate stability, software recurring revenue acceleration, and credit risk metrics like non-performing loans (NPLs). Historically, StoneCo has beaten EPS estimates, as in Q4 2025 ($0.51 vs. $0.48 expected) and Q1 2025 (6.25% surprise), often leading to positive stock reactions of 5-10%.

AI Screener

Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener identifies trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore it today to enhance your stock analysis workflow.

Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Heading into earnings, sentiment is cautiously optimistic, buoyed by full-year guidance and a recent extraordinary dividend, but tempered by YTD stock weakness and macro pressures like Brazil's interest rates. Options imply ~12% volatility, aligning with historical moves. A beat on EPS and gross profit, coupled with upbeat TPV commentary, could spark a rebound; misses on credit or guidance might pressure shares further.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Post-Q1, attention will shift to execution against 2026 guidance: adjusted gross profit of R$6.6-7.0 billion implies steady quarterly progression, with emphasis on MSMB TPV growth and software attach rates.

Investors should track demand signals in Brazil's fintech ecosystem, where digital adoption continues amid easing inflation. Margin expansion via cost discipline and higher take rates remains pivotal, especially as credit operations scale—watch delinquency trends and net charge-offs (NCOs).

Upcoming catalysts include Q2 results, potential M&A (mergers and acquisitions) in software, and capital returns via buybacks or dividends. Broader dynamics like regulatory changes in open banking or Pix payments could influence long-term trajectory. Balanced growth across payments (70%+ of gross profit) and financial services will be crucial for sustained profitability.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations