Tempus AI (TEM) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Analysts forecast Q1 2026 revenue of $345.4 million, a 35% increase from $255.7 million in Q1 2025.
• Consensus EPS estimate stands at approximately -$0.20 per share, reflecting ongoing investments in AI-driven precision medicine.
• Key focus areas include diagnostics revenue growth and expansion in data and applications, building on Q4 2025's 83% year-over-year surge to $367.2 million.
• Company guided full-year 2026 revenue to about $1.59 billion, implying around 25% annual growth.
• Investors watching metrics like oncology test volumes, MRD (minimal residual disease) tests, and net revenue retention, which hit 126% last quarter.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Tempus AI, a leader in AI-powered precision medicine, continues to scale its platform connecting clinical and molecular data for oncology and beyond. This Q1 2026 report, due May 5, follows a blockbuster Q4 2025 where revenue soared 83% year-over-year amid diagnostics and data segment acceleration. For investors, it offers insights into sustained momentum post-IPO, execution on AI integrations, and path to profitability. In a competitive healthcare AI landscape, strong results could affirm Tempus' network effects and $1.1 billion contract backlog, influencing valuation amid high growth expectations.

Earnings Expectations

Wall Street anticipates Q1 2026 revenue of $345.4 million, up 35% from $255.7 million in the prior-year quarter, driven by diagnostics (expected to build on $266.9 million in Q4 2025) and data/applications growth. Consensus EPS is pegged at -$0.20, an improvement from historical losses as adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $12.9 million in Q4.

Investors will scrutinize segment breakdowns: diagnostics (oncology volumes up 29% last quarter), MRD tests (up 56% quarter-over-quarter), and Insights revenue (up 69.5% in Q4 excluding one impact). Company guidance for full-year 2026 revenue of $1.59 billion sets a high bar, with Q1 as a critical early indicator. Historically, TEM shares have declined post-earnings in most cases, including a 7.3% drop after Q4 despite beats, underscoring focus on forward guidance.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Heading into Q1 earnings, sentiment is cautiously optimistic, buoyed by Q4 beats and 2026 guidance but tempered by recent stock weakness—down about 13% since last report amid broader sector rotation. Implied volatility suggests a ±10-13% move post-earnings, reflecting risks around margin pressures from R&D spend and competition in AI diagnostics. Key factors: any guidance raise or updates on partnerships could spark upside, while misses on growth metrics might pressure shares further.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Post-Q1, attention will shift to reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $1.59 billion in revenue and $65 million adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), signaling path to profitability. Investors should track diagnostics momentum, particularly oncology and hereditary testing volumes, alongside MRD adoption.

In data and applications, growth in Insights and platform licensing will indicate AI monetization progress. Recent collaborations, like with Predicta Biosciences, highlight partnership potential as catalysts.

Macro factors include reimbursement trends for precision medicine and cost controls amid scaling. Net revenue retention above 120% and contract backlog expansion will underscore customer stickiness. Upcoming events like AACR (American Association for Cancer Research) presentations could reveal pipeline advances.

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