TEM stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Tempus AI Inc is a technology company... Show more
Tempus AI (TEM) Stock Analysis: Regulatory Pricing Gains Propel Genomics Momentum
Key Takeaways
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Tempus AI shares up 85-87% YTD near $64, with 35% pullback from October highs amid valuation scrutiny.
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Q3 revenue surged 84.7% YoY to $334.2M, first positive adjusted EBITDA at $1.5M, genomics +117%.
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30% of solid tumor testing shifted to premium ADLT xT CDx at $4,500 reimbursement vs. $3,000.
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Analyst consensus Moderate Buy, targets $79-$96; recent Buy from Canaccord Genuity.
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Added $150M+ data contracts; MRD xM test and xF liquid biopsy FDA submissions underway.
Current Market Snapshot
Tempus AI stock has consolidated in recent weeks after a robust YTD rally, trading around key support levels amid healthcare AI enthusiasm. Genomics volume growth and data licensing deals sustain upside interest, countering pullbacks from profit-taking and high valuation multiples. Investor focus remains on reimbursement progress and AI platform expansion, positioning TEM favorably in precision medicine cycles despite broader sector volatility.
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Recent Developments Driving TEM Price Action
Tempus AI's stock pulled back modestly in recent weeks from YTD peaks, reflecting digestion of Q3 gains and analyst recalibrations amid premium valuations, yet held above $60 support. Key drivers centered on reimbursement advancements narrowing pricing gaps with peers. Zacks highlighted progress toward regulatory catch-up, with 30% of solid tumor DNA testing migrating to higher-reimbursed Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test (ADLT) status for xT CDx at $4,500 versus $3,000 for non-ADLT versions; management anticipates most volume shifting by end-2026. This boosted genomics margins, contributing to the first positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.5M in Q3 (reported early November), where revenue hit $334.2M (+84.7% YoY) on oncology volumes +27% and hereditary testing +37% via Ambry Genetics.
Post-earnings, shares initially dipped on cash burn concerns despite beating EPS estimates (-$0.11 vs. -$0.18) and raising FY2025 revenue guidance to $1.265B (+80%), but rebounded mid-November past $100 on AI hype before 35% retracement to $64 by late December. Data services grew 26.1% to $81.3M, fueled by $150M+ new contracts including a $66M biotech deal, building on Q2's $200M AstraZeneca/Pathos foundation model using Tempus' 400-petabyte dataset. Minimal residual disease (MRD) testing via xM gained traction for tumor-naive monitoring, enhancing recurring revenue potential.
Analyst updates showed balance. Canaccord Genuity initiated Buy on December 22; Morgan Stanley resumed Overweight at $85 on December 2; BTIG raised to $105 on November 25. Offsets included TD Cowen downgrade to Hold at $88 (October 21, lingering effects), JPMorgan trimming to $80 Neutral, and HC Wainwright to $89 Buy, yielding Moderate Buy consensus from 11-15 firms at $79-$96 targets. Insider sales and market cap dip 7.92% to $11.52B added pressure, but Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) noted EPS estimate narrowing 1 cent to -$0.64 for 2025. No major partnerships emerged in the period, though prior Renalytix and IFLI deals underscored platform reach.
2026 Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Tempus AI's 2026 path emphasizes genomics scaling to 25%+ unit growth and data flywheel acceleration via AI models on multimodal datasets. Opportunities include FDA submissions for liquid biopsy xF, MRD xM reimbursement, and full ADLT migration for xT/xR/xF assays to lift pricing power and margins. Paige.AI integration promises pathology AI enhancements, while biopharma contracts could exceed Q3's $150M pace.
Challenges encompass ongoing losses, -20.98% margins, high debt-to-equity (2.58), and genomic competition amid payer negotiations. Monitor Q4 results for sustained EBITDA positivity near $20M FY target, sales efficiency in oncology/hereditary, and compute infrastructure for 400PB data. Regulatory timelines, ADLT approvals, and trial matching adoption will define positioning against peers, supported by 26% insider ownership and North America revenue dominance.
TEM's Stochastic Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 3 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TEM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 8 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TEM just turned positive on March 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where TEM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 14 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TEM advanced for three days, in of 98 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TEM as a result. In of 24 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TEM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for TEM entered a downward trend on March 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (19.011) is normal, around the industry mean (18.491). P/E Ratio (39.298) is within average values for comparable stocks, (106.928). TEM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.950). TEM has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.031). P/S Ratio (7.163) is also within normal values, averaging (71.027).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TEM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 98, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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