YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Earnings Date & Reports

YPF delivered Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026) revenues of $4.95 billion, surpassing some analyst forecasts of $4.62 billion by 7% but missing others around $5.04 billion. This marked a 9% QoQ increase from Q4 2025's $4.56 billion and 7% YoY growth, fueled by higher international oil prices, aligned domestic fuel pricing, and robust local demand.

EPS registered $1.03, exceeding consensus expectations of $0.83 (beat by 24%) though below select $1.10 estimates. Adjusted EBITDA soared to $1.59-$1.6 billion, a first-quarter record with 32% margin (up from 28% in Q4 2025), reflecting upstream efficiencies and record refining utilization at 344,000 bpd (102% capacity). Net income flipped to $409 million profit from Q4's $649 million loss. Key metrics included shale oil output at 205,000 bpd (76% of total oil), free cash flow of $871 million (up $1.8 billion YoY), and net debt to EBITDA leverage at 1.57x, aided by $500 million M&A proceeds.

AI Screener

Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener identifies trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore it today to enhance your research process.

Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Following the May 7 release, YPF shares closed at $42.80-$42.85, down about 1% on the day, with extended trading showing mixed signals—up slightly to $43.00 in some sessions and premarket gains of 0.47% to $43 noted amid optimism on revenue and EBITDA beats. Sentiment focused on record shale metrics and leverage reduction, tempering EPS miss concerns, though broader market dynamics contributed to the modest dip.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

YPF reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, targeting shale oil production of approximately 215,000 bpd by year-end (with a December exit rate of 250,000 bpd) and capital expenditures in the $5.5-5.8 billion range. Management expects CapEx acceleration in upcoming quarters, supported by strong cash flows and liquidity of $1.7 billion.

Investors should watch upstream execution in Vaca Muerta, where drilling efficiency improved (364 m/day, up 12% YoY) and lifting costs dropped 42% to $8.8 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE). Refining margins strengthened to ~$24/bbl in April, but fuel price buffers and import avoidance remain key amid demand fluctuations.

Progress on LNG projects, including CESA tolling SPA and Argentina LNG FID by year-end (CapEx ~$24 billion), could unlock exports. Infrastructure bottlenecks may cap near-term growth until 2027 improvements. Balance sheet health—via debt prepayments and M&A—will be critical, with EBITDA sensitivity of ~$80 million per $1/bbl Brent rise. Track oil prices, Argentine policy stability, and Q2 production updates.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations