Advertisement
CGAU or FNV or PAAS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Centerra Gold (CGAU) vs. Franco-Nevada (FNV) vs. Pan American Silver (PAAS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CGAU (Centerra Gold) is a gold and copper miner with the strongest recent momentum, having rallied sharply over the past year while trading at a notably low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.
- FNV (Franco-Nevada) is a royalty and streaming company offering lower-volatility precious-metals exposure, but it carries a premium valuation relative to the operators.
- PAAS (Pan American Silver) provides leveraged exposure to silver and gold but has pulled back in recent weeks alongside softer silver prices.
- The three names represent fundamentally different business models: two operating miners versus one royalty/streaming firm, which shapes their risk, growth, and valuation profiles.
- Relative performance has diverged, with operator stocks showing higher beta moves in both directions while FNV's returns have been steadier.
Introduction
Gold and silver equities have been a focal point for investors as precious-metal prices remain elevated by historical standards. Comparing CGAU, FNV, and PAAS offers a useful lens on three distinct ways to gain exposure to the sector: a traditional gold-and-copper producer, a capital-light royalty and streaming company, and a diversified silver and gold miner. This comparison is relevant to investors weighing growth potential against stability, and to traders assessing momentum, valuation sensitivity, and sector positioning in the current market environment.
CGAU Overview and Recent Performance
Centerra Gold (CGAU) operates the Mount Milligan mine in British Columbia and the Öksüt mine in Turkey, producing gold and copper. The company has been one of the stronger performers in the mining space over the past year, with its shares rallying more than 100% as higher realized gold prices and improved operational execution lifted margins. Recent quarters have featured rising production, a debt-free balance sheet with a sizable cash position, and an expanded share buyback program, factors that have supported investor sentiment. Management has also raised 2026 gold production guidance, reflecting stronger output at Mount Milligan. The stock's rapid appreciation has, however, prompted some profit-taking and insider selling, underscoring the momentum-driven nature of its move.
FNV Overview and Recent Performance
Franco-Nevada (FNV) is a royalty and streaming company that receives payments from mines without bearing operating costs. Its portfolio spans gold, silver, and energy assets, providing diversified exposure with a debt-free balance sheet. The stock has advanced modestly on a year-to-date and trailing 12-month basis, though it has pulled back from its 52-week high in recent weeks, a move consistent with a broader pause in precious-metal equities. Because FNV does not operate mines, its margins and cash flow tend to be more stable, but investors pay a premium for this profile, reflected in a P/E ratio above 30 and a modest dividend yield. Its recent performance reflects a lower-volatility, royalty-style return profile rather than the sharper swings seen in operating miners.
PAAS Overview and Recent Performance
Pan American Silver (PAAS) is one of the world's largest primary silver producers, with a diversified portfolio across the Americas. The company delivered strong first-quarter results marked by solid sales, higher net income, and sharply reduced all-in sustaining costs (AISC, a measure of the full cost to produce an ounce), helped by recent acquisitions. Management announced a shareholder-return framework targeting up to $1 billion in distributions for 2026. However, the stock has declined notably from its earlier highs in recent weeks, pressured by a pullback in silver prices. Because PAAS is closely tied to silver, its share price has exhibited higher sensitivity to metal-price swings, making it the most volatile of the three names in the group.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a systematic edge across names like these, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a selection of AI-powered trading bots designed to navigate shifting market conditions. Tickeron offers hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of securities. Only the bots best suited to the current market environment earn a place in the Trending AI Robots section, helping users cut through the noise and focus on strategies that are performing well right now. Explore the Trending AI Robots to see which automated strategies are currently aligned with precious-metals and mining stocks.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The three companies differ most sharply in how they generate earnings. CGAU and PAAS are operators that bear production costs and capital-expenditure risk, giving them greater operating leverage to metal prices in both directions. FNV, by contrast, earns royalty and stream income with minimal operating costs, producing steadier cash flow but a higher valuation multiple. On momentum, CGAU has led the group over the past year, while PAAS has weakened recently on silver-price softness and FNV has traded in a narrower band. Risk factors also differ: CGAU carries Turkish jurisdictional exposure, PAAS carries silver-price and development-project sensitivity, and FNV carries valuation risk tied to its premium multiple. These contrasts mean the three names appeal to different investor profiles within the same sector.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor FNV for its combination of a debt-free, low-volatility cash-flow model and a steadier uptrend, while recognizing that its premium valuation may limit near-term upside. Among the operators, CGAU appears better positioned on momentum and a low P/E multiple, whereas PAAS currently faces headwinds from weakening silver prices. The AI's assessment is probabilistic and reflects current conditions rather than a definitive forecast, and the relative ranking could shift as metal prices and market sentiment evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Momentum Indicator for CGAU turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CGAU saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 70 of the 85 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CGAU just turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where CGAU's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +0.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CGAU advanced for three days, in 239 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 44 of 64 cases where CGAU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
CGAU moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CGAU crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CGAU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for CGAU entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.989) is normal, around the industry mean (2.031). P/E Ratio (7.042) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.536). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.341) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.544) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CGAU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
FNV's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FNV turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where FNV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FNV's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 59 cases where FNV's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FNV as a result. In 50 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +3.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FNV advanced for three days, in 207 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
FNV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
FNV moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for FNV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FNV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for FNV entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FNV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.699) is normal, around the industry mean (2.031). P/E Ratio (31.746) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.536). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.341) among similar stocks. FNV's P/S Ratio (21.645) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.321).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PAAS sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On October 16, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for PAAS moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 49 of the 58 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +1.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAAS advanced for three days, in 242 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
PAAS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
PAAS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PAAS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAAS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for PAAS entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.460) is normal, around the industry mean (2.031). P/E Ratio (12.914) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.536). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.341) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.533) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PAAS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CGAU | FNV | PAAS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 8 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 37 Fair valued | 73 Overvalued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 33 | 52 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 46 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 50 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 81 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 30 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CGAU's Valuation (37) in the null industry is in the same range as PAAS (47) in the Precious Metals industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for FNV (73) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU's stock grew similarly to PAAS’s and somewhat faster than FNV’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the null industry is in the same range as FNV (33) in the Precious Metals industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PAAS (52) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU's stock grew similarly to FNV’s and somewhat faster than PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's SMR Rating (31) in the null industry is in the same range as PAAS (43) in the Precious Metals industry, and is in the same range as FNV (46) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU's stock grew similarly to PAAS’s and similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Price Growth Rating (38) in the null industry is in the same range as FNV (50) in the Precious Metals industry, and is in the same range as PAAS (60) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU's stock grew similarly to FNV’s and similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
FNV's P/E Growth Rating (81) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as PAAS (89) in the Precious Metals industry, and is in the same range as CGAU (96) in the null industry. This means that FNV's stock grew similarly to PAAS’s and similarly to CGAU’s over the last 12 months.
| CGAU | FNV | PAAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 50% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 64% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 71% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 7 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CGAU’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while FNV’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PAAS’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- CGAU’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- FNV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PAAS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CGAU’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FNV’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and PAAS’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CGAU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- FNV’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PAAS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CGAU (@Precious Metals) experienced а +4.60% price change this week, while FNV (@Precious Metals) price change was +3.59% , and PAAS (@Precious Metals) price fluctuated +3.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -5.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -20.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
CGAU is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
FNV is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
PAAS is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-5.98% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
Advertisement