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CGAU vs FNV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) vs. Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CGAU trades at a low P/E ratio (around 5.7) with strong YTD gains exceeding 27%, driven by robust Q1 2026 earnings and production.
- FNV offers stability as a royalty company with lower beta (0.89), YTD returns around 12%, and a dividend yield near 0.8%.
- CGAU shows superior 1-year performance (over 160%) compared to FNV's 41%, reflecting higher volatility in gold mining.
- Recent market activity highlights CGAU's momentum from self-funded growth, while FNV benefits from portfolio expansions.
- Valuation metrics favor CGAU for value investors, but FNV appeals for risk-averse exposure to precious metals.
- Both stocks have outperformed broader indices in recent weeks amid gold price strength.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines CGAU, a gold and copper producer, against FNV, a leading precious metals royalty and streaming company. Both provide exposure to the gold sector but differ in business models: operational mining for CGAU versus asset-light royalties for FNV. Traders seeking momentum and value may favor CGAU, while investors prioritizing stability and dividends might prefer FNV. In the current environment of elevated gold prices and sector volatility, this analysis highlights relative performance, risks, and market positioning to aid informed decisions in gold-related investments.
CGAU Overview and Recent Performance
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) operates gold and copper mines, primarily the Mount Milligan mine in British Columbia and the Öksüt mine in Turkey. In recent market activity, CGAU shares have shown strong upward momentum, with YTD returns surpassing 27% and 1-year gains over 160%, outperforming the S&P/TSX Composite. Q1 2026 results featured revenue of $484.7 million and adjusted net earnings supporting free cash flow growth, alongside a quarterly dividend of C$0.07. Key influences include permit extensions for Mount Milligan through 2035 and positive Kemess project updates, boosting sentiment amid higher gold prices. The stock's beta of 1.48 reflects higher volatility, with a market cap around $3.6 billion and P/E ratio near 5.7.
FNV Overview and Recent Performance
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) is a royalty and streaming firm with a diversified portfolio across precious metals, focused on gold. Recent weeks have seen steady performance, with YTD returns around 12% and 1-year gains of 41%, beating the S&P/TSX but lagging pure miners. The company maintains a low beta of 0.89, market cap over $44 billion, and P/E around 40, reflecting its premium valuation. Developments include new financings like A$220 million for the Bullabulling project and Panama's approval for Cobre Panamá stockpiled ore processing, enhancing near-term cash flows. FNV raised its dividend to $0.44 quarterly, marking 19 years of increases, supported by record 2025 results. Sentiment remains positive due to debt-free balance sheet and asset handbook updates.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CGAU and FNV both leverage gold exposure but contrast sharply in models: CGAU's active mining involves operational risks like costs and permits, while FNV's royalties offer ~90% margins with no execution risk. Growth drivers differ—CGAU via mine expansions like Kemess, FNV through deal flow. Recent momentum favors CGAU (YTD +27% vs. +12%), but FNV provides lower beta (0.89 vs. 1.48) and consistent dividends. Risks include commodity volatility for both, plus geopolitical for CGAU and counterparty for FNV. Valuation: CGAU P/E ~5.7 (PEG low), FNV ~40 but justified by stability. Sector sentiment tilts toward producers amid gold rally, yet royalties hedge downturns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors CGAU due to superior trend consistency, undervaluation (low P/E), and stronger relative momentum in recent gold market strength. Observable catalysts like Q1 cash flow and production guidance position it ahead probabilistically, though FNV may edge in stability if volatility rises.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CGAU is a Buy and FNV is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CGAU’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileFNV’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CGAU’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- FNV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CGAU’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FNV’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CGAU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- FNV’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CGAU (@Precious Metals) experienced а -1.00% price change this week, while FNV (@Precious Metals) price change was -2.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -2.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.48%.
Reported Earning Dates
CGAU is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
FNV is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-2.71% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| CGAU | FNV | CGAU / FNV | |
| Capitalization | 3.15B | 40.2B | 8% |
| EBITDA | 936M | 2.06B | 45% |
| Gain YTD | 10.369 | 0.940 | 1,104% |
| P/E Ratio | 5.35 | 31.09 | 17% |
| Revenue | 1.57B | 2.11B | 75% |
| Total Cash | 555M | 434M | 128% |
| Total Debt | 43.7M | 82.6M | 53% |
CGAU | FNV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 16 Undervalued | 29 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 51 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 47 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CGAU's Valuation (16) in the null industry is in the same range as FNV (29) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the null industry is in the same range as FNV (51) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's SMR Rating (30) in the null industry is in the same range as FNV (47) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Price Growth Rating (46) in the null industry is in the same range as FNV (60) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
FNV's P/E Growth Rating (88) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as CGAU (99) in the null industry. This means that FNV’s stock grew similarly to CGAU’s over the last 12 months.
| CGAU | FNV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 76% | 6 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 8 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 65% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| FIAT | 23.56 | 0.48 | +2.09% |
| YieldMax Short COIN Option Inc Strgy ETF | |||
| HIGH | 21.63 | 0.08 | +0.37% |
| Simplify Enhanced Income ETF | |||
| DGRS | 59.64 | N/A | N/A |
| WisdomTree US SmallCap Qual Div Gr ETF | |||
| IHI | 49.41 | -1.26 | -2.49% |
| iShares US Medical Devices ETF | |||
| TSXD | 5.13 | -0.41 | -7.33% |
| Direxion Daily Smndctrs Top 5 Bear 2XETF | |||
FNV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FNV has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FNV jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.