Advertisement
TBF or TBT or TMV
Which ETF would AI Choose? ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) vs. ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) vs. Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV)
Key Takeaways
- All three ETFs provide inverse exposure to the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index through derivatives such as swaps and futures, with daily resets that make them unsuitable for long-term holding.
- TBF offers -1x leverage with a net expense ratio of 0.95%, providing the most moderate risk profile among the trio.
- TBT delivers -2x leverage at a net expense ratio of 0.93%, amplifying both gains and losses relative to the underlying index.
- TMV targets -3x leverage with a net expense ratio of 0.97%, resulting in the highest volatility and compounding effects from daily resets.
- Structural differences center on leverage multiples rather than holdings or sector allocations, as each relies primarily on swap agreements and short-term Treasury instruments for collateral.
- These ETFs serve tactical hedging or short-term directional strategies within the long-duration Treasury market, with performance driven by interest rate movements rather than equity sector dynamics.
Introduction
Investors seeking tools to hedge against or profit from rising long-term interest rates often turn to inverse Treasury ETFs. TBF, TBT, and TMV all track the same underlying benchmark—the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index—yet differ in leverage intensity. This comparison highlights how varying multiples of inverse exposure create distinct risk-return profiles within the same thematic focus on long-duration U.S. Treasuries.
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) Overview
TBF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to -1x the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. The fund employs swap agreements and futures contracts rather than direct bond holdings, resulting in a limited number of positions centered on derivatives and cash equivalents such as Treasury bills. Its net expense ratio stands at 0.95%. As a single-inverse product, TBF provides straightforward daily inverse exposure without the amplified volatility of higher-leverage alternatives, making it structurally suited for moderate tactical positioning.
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) Overview
TBT aims for daily results equal to -2x the performance of the same ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Like its counterpart, it relies on swaps and futures for exposure, supplemented by short-term Treasury instruments as collateral. The net expense ratio is 0.93%. This double-inverse structure doubles the daily sensitivity to index movements compared with -1x products, increasing both potential returns and drawdowns while maintaining the core daily-reset mechanism.
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) Overview
TMV targets daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of -3x the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. The fund achieves this through a combination of swaps, futures, and collateral holdings, resulting in an even more concentrated derivative-based portfolio. Its net expense ratio is 0.97%. The triple-inverse design produces the greatest daily amplification of index declines among the three, accompanied by heightened compounding effects over multiple periods.
Industry and Thematic Landscape
These ETFs operate within the long-duration U.S. Treasury market, where macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, and economic growth expectations drive bond prices. Capital flows into or out of long Treasuries often reflect shifts in interest rate outlooks, with regulatory developments around leverage products and broader fixed-income liquidity influencing product usage. Geopolitical events and fiscal policy can also affect Treasury yields, creating environments where inverse exposure becomes relevant for hedging portfolios against rate volatility.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
In recent market cycles, the ETFs have exhibited performance patterns consistent with their leverage levels, with higher multiples producing larger daily swings. TBF typically shows more contained volatility than TBT or TMV, while the latter two experience amplified drawdowns and rebounds tied directly to index movements. Differences arise primarily from leverage and daily reset mechanics rather than holdings concentration, as all maintain synthetic exposure to the same benchmark. Over recent months, relative positioning has favored lower-leverage structures for stability during periods of moderate rate fluctuations.
AI Screener
Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to discover opportunities aligned with your strategy.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on structural strength, TBF currently presents the most favorable risk-adjusted profile among the three due to its moderate -1x leverage, competitive expense ratio, and reduced sensitivity to daily compounding effects. This positioning supports greater stability in momentum and lower overall volatility compared with the higher-leverage alternatives, making it the probabilistic preference for balanced inverse Treasury exposure in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
TBF's RSI Oscillator recovers from overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TBF moved out of overbought territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 35 of the 43 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TBF as a result. In 59 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TBF turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TBF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TBF advanced for three days, in 240 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
TBF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 266 of 303 cases where TBF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 88%.
TBT's RSI Oscillator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TBT moved out of overbought territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 40 of the 40 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TBT as a result. In 76 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TBT turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 83%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TBT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TBT advanced for three days, in 255 of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
TBT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 276 of 296 cases where TBT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
TMV's RSI Indicator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TMV moved out of overbought territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 35 of the 36 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TMV as a result. In 76 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TMV turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TMV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.02% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TMV advanced for three days, in 271 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
TMV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 260 of 277 cases where TMV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
| TBF | TBT | TMV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 86% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 85% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | 18 days ago 86% | 4 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 84% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
Advertisement
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| IREG | 3.29 | 0.28 | +9.30% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long IREN Daily ETF (IREG) | |||
| VOOG | 84.75 | 0.60 | +0.71% |
| Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (VOOG) | |||
| FLEU | 34.11 | 0.19 | +0.55% |
| Franklin FTSE Eurozone ETF (FLEU) | |||
| NUDM | 39.34 | 0.15 | +0.38% |
| Nuveen ESG International Developed Markets Equity ETF (NUDM) | |||
| BFOR | 23.59 | 0.09 | +0.37% |
| ALPS Barron's 400 ETF (BFOR) | |||