AAOI Price Prediction, Applied Optoelectronics AI Recommendations

AAOI sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

AAOI saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on February 24, 2023. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for AAOI moved out of overbought territory on February 24, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 26 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 14, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AAOI as a result. In of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

AAOI moved below its 50-day moving average on March 15, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for AAOI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 22, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAOI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for AAOI entered a downward trend on March 23, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

The 50-day moving average for AAOI moved above the 200-day moving average on February 22, 2023. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAOI advanced for three days, in of 273 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

AAOI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAOI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.387) is normal, around the industry mean (6.456). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (46.776). AAOI's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.466). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.307) is also within normal values, averaging (13.516).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAOI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock worse than average.

AAOI is expected to report earnings to rise 42.84% to -27 cents per share on May 10

Q1'23

Est.

$-0.27

Q4'22

Beat

by $0.12

Q3'22

Beat

by $0.03

Q2'22

Beat

by $0.01

Q1'22

Est.

$-0.29