Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, November 5, 2026, after the market close, covering the three months ended September 30, 2026.
• Management guided third-quarter revenue to $255 million to $290 million, implying roughly 130% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.
• The company's own non-GAAP earnings guidance calls for $0.11 to $0.26 per share, versus a lower independent consensus estimate that has clustered near $0.08 to $0.14 per share.
• The second quarter of 2026 marked a fifth consecutive quarter of record revenue ($191.9 million) and a return to non-GAAP profitability.
• Investors are watching the 800G transceiver ramp, new 1.6T orders, and progress on domestic manufacturing capacity in Texas.
• Shares have pulled back from recent highs and trade below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages heading into the report.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) designs and manufactures advanced optical and Hybrid Fiber-Coax (HFC) networking products that power AI data centers, cable television (CATV), telecom, and broadband fiber access networks. Its high-speed transceivers and laser components sit at the heart of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out, making each quarterly report a barometer for AI-driven demand. AAOI has posted five straight quarters of record revenue, but shares have swung sharply as investors weigh explosive growth against ongoing GAAP losses and heavy capital spending. With valuation still elevated and short interest near 15% of shares outstanding, the third-quarter print will test whether the company's capacity expansion and next-generation product ramp can justify the stock's premium.

Earnings Expectations

For the fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, AAOI management has guided for revenue of $255 million to $290 million, non-GAAP gross margin of 29% to 30.5%, and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11 to $0.26. That EPS range represents the company's first guided quarterly profit since its recent growth inflection. Independent consensus estimates have been more conservative, with non-GAAP EPS figures clustering near $0.08 to $0.14 per share, below the midpoint of management's own outlook.

For context, AAOI reported $191.9 million in second-quarter 2026 revenue, up 86% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.06. In the year-ago third quarter, revenue was $118.6 million. Beyond the headline figures, investors will focus on data center revenue growth, 800G (800-gigabit-per-second) transceiver shipments, CATV 1.8 GHz amplifier demand, and gross margin trends. Historically, AAOI shares have reacted sharply around earnings, including a double-digit decline following the third-quarter 2025 report when forward guidance underwhelmed.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

AAOI shares have climbed more than 140% over the past 52 weeks, but the stock has retreated sharply from its recent highs, recently trading near $77 after approaching $115 earlier in the fall. The shares now sit below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the stock carries a beta near 3.8, indicating volatility well above the broader market. Elevated short interest of roughly 15% of the float adds another layer of tension around the print. Sentiment heading into earnings hinges on whether results and guidance can revalidate the AI-optics growth narrative, particularly given that the company has continued to report GAAP net losses even as revenue scales and non-GAAP profitability emerges.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

The single most important item after the report will be the trajectory of next-generation transceivers. Management has signaled that 800G shipments are expected to grow roughly fivefold sequentially in the third quarter, and the company has secured its first volume order for 1.6T (1.6-terabit-per-second) transceivers, with deliveries expected to begin as early as the third quarter. Confirmation of these ramps would validate the AI data center thesis.

Capacity expansion is equally critical. AAOI aims to grow combined 800G and 1.6T production capacity to more than 650,000 units per month by the end of 2026 and over 930,000 by the end of 2027, with more than half coming from its Texas facilities. Positioning as the largest U.S.-based manufacturer of AI-focused optical transceivers could become a competitive advantage if domestic sourcing preferences intensify.

Investors should also monitor gross margin progression, CATV demand for 1.8 GHz amplifiers, and the balance between revenue growth and heavy capital expenditures. The company has targeted full-year 2026 revenue of roughly $1.1 billion, and it expects higher-margin external laser source products for co-packaged optics to contribute meaningfully by 2027. Risks include supply-chain constraints on components such as indium phosphide lasers and digital signal processors, customer concentration, and execution on rapid capacity scaling.

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