AAP Advance Auto Parts Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

AAP's RSI Oscillator descending into oversold zone

The RSI Indicator for AAP moved into overbought territory on October 01, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAP just turned positive on September 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where AAP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.

Following a +1.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAP advanced for three days, in 181 of 287 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AAP as a result. In 75 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.

The 50-day moving average for AAP moved below the 200-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.

AAP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.064) is normal, around the industry mean (6.969). P/E Ratio (22.218) is within average values for comparable stocks, (71.549). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.744) is also within normal values, averaging (1.471). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.296) is also within normal values, averaging (49.084).

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AAP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.