AN stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
AutoNation is the second-largest automotive dealer in the United States, with 2025 revenue of $27... Show more
AutoNation (AN) Stock Analysis: Navigating Auto Retail Headwinds
Key Takeaways
- AutoNation shares have shown resilience amid softer vehicle sales, supported by record after-sales gross profits.
- Analyst consensus remains positive with an average price target around $245, implying over 20% upside potential.
- Recent analyst adjustments reflect caution ahead of Q1 2026 earnings due to tough year-over-year comparisons.
- Strong share repurchases totaling $785 million in 2025 underscore management confidence.
- Focus on higher-margin segments like parts, service, and finance drives profitability.
- Q1 2026 results due soon, with expectations for EBITDA and EPS declines but peer-leading consistency.
Current Market Snapshot
AutoNation (AN) stock has navigated volatility in recent trading sessions, holding steady within its 52-week range amid broader auto retail pressures. The shares reflect a balance between cyclical new vehicle sales challenges and robust performance in recurring revenue streams like after-sales services and financing. Trading at a forward P/E of approximately 11.5, the stock appears attractively valued relative to historical norms, drawing interest from value-oriented investors. Recent sessions have seen modest gains, buoyed by sector stability and ongoing capital returns, positioning AN as a resilient play in a maturing automotive market cycle.
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Recent Developments Driving AN Price Action
AutoNation's stock has experienced measured fluctuations in recent weeks, influenced primarily by analyst updates and anticipation for upcoming quarterly results. With no major company-specific announcements like earnings or acquisitions in the past 30 days, focus has centered on Wall Street's recalibrations ahead of Q1 2026 earnings, expected around mid-April. Shares gained 1.76% in the latest session to close at $196.91, reflecting a 6.64% rise over the prior month despite a YTD decline of 4.63%.
Key analyst actions have tempered optimism while maintaining constructive outlooks. On April 8, Stephens lowered its price target to $220 from $232, citing expected Q1 EBITDA and EPS drops of 8.1% and 4.8%, respectively, due to weather impacts and a tough 7.1% new unit sales comparison from prior-year tariff surges. Citi similarly trimmed to $269 from $280, and Barclays adjusted to $240 from $245 but retained a Buy rating. Earlier in March, BofA reinstated a Buy at $235, and Morgan Stanley raised to $238 from $233, highlighting AN's peer-leading operational consistency.
These tweaks link directly to price softening, as investors digest forward estimates. Consensus now points to an average target of $244.50 (high $300, low $210), signaling potential upside from current levels amid a "Moderate Buy" rating from 15 analysts. Broader sector notes, like Zacks' March 31 highlight of AN alongside Penske Automotive for strategic positioning despite cooling sales, provided support.
Macro factors, including elevated interest rates pressuring affordability and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, have weighed on auto retail sentiment. However, AN's Q4 2025 results (reported February 6) offered a buffer: adjusted EPS of $5.08 beat estimates, with record after-sales gross profit and a $2.2 billion AutoNation Finance portfolio. Full-year 2025 revenue hit $27.6 billion, up 3%, fueled by $785 million in share repurchases reducing shares by 10%. These fundamentals have stabilized sentiment, with the stock's low P/E (11.54) and 7% short interest underscoring value appeal despite near-term hurdles.
Overall, price action mirrors cautious positioning for Q1, balanced by AN's high-margin shift and capital discipline.
2026 Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
As AutoNation progresses through 2026, investors should track its evolution toward higher-margin operations amid normalizing auto demand. Consensus forecasts project revenue growth of 2-3% and EPS expansion of 6-12% for the year, driven by after-sales (targeting 48-50% margins), customer financial services, and acquisitions adding over $650 million in annual revenue. Strategic buybacks and luxury dealership expansions in Sunbelt markets position AN for market share gains as aging vehicle fleets spur service demand.
Risks include persistent high interest rates curbing new vehicle affordability (gross profit per unit projected at $2,200, down from peaks) and potential EV transition costs. Opportunities lie in digital sales enhancements and omnichannel strategies boosting used vehicle volumes. Regulatory shifts on emissions or tariffs could impact supply, while macroeconomic easing might lift volumes 5-10%. Competitive dynamics in auto retail, alongside peers like Penske, will test AN's operational edge. Balanced monitoring of Q1 results, free cash flow (over $1 billion in 2025), and segment margins will inform the year's trajectory.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
AN in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on May 18, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 61 cases where AN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AN moved below its 50-day moving average on May 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for AN entered a downward trend on June 01, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AN as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AN just turned positive on May 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where AN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AN advanced for three days, in of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.878) is normal, around the industry mean (3.226). P/E Ratio (10.387) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.893). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.706) is also within normal values, averaging (0.817). AN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.017). P/S Ratio (0.258) is also within normal values, averaging (0.946).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a retaier and a distributer of automobiles
Industry AutomotiveAftermarket