AVAV stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
AeroVironment Inc is a defense technology provider delivering integrated capabilities across air, land, sea, space, and cyber... Show more
Why AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock Is Down -13.9% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- AeroVironment (AVAV) shares fell roughly 13.9% over the last 30 days, declining from $168.06 at the close on August 5, 2026, to $144.65 on September 4, 2026.
- The move is part of a broader pullback: the stock is down approximately 29% from early June levels of around $204 per share.
- Strong fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results were offset by cautious fiscal 2027 guidance, expectations for negative free cash flow, and back-half-weighted revenue timing.
- The termination of the SCAR space program, a goodwill impairment, and a disclosed material weakness in internal controls continued to pressure investor sentiment and triggered shareholder litigation.
- New contract wins, including a U.S. Army directed-energy laser award, have not yet reversed the selling pressure.
AeroVironment (AVAV) Company Overview and Market Position
AeroVironment is a defense technology company that designs, manufactures, and supports a portfolio of unmanned and autonomous systems for government and commercial customers. Its core offerings include uncrewed aircraft systems, the Switchblade family of loitering munitions, precision-strike and counter-unmanned aircraft systems (counter-UAS), space-based platforms, directed-energy systems, and cyber and electronic warfare capabilities. The company completed its acquisition of BlueHalo in May 2025, expanding its footprint into counter-UAS, space, and advanced technologies.
Within the defense sector, AeroVironment competes with a range of unmanned-systems and aerospace players, including KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions) and RCAT (Red Cat Holdings). Investors follow the stock for its exposure to structurally rising demand for drones, autonomous warfare, and counter-drone technologies, as well as for its large funded backlog and strong bookings momentum.
AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, AeroVironment shares moved lower, closing at $168.06 on August 5, 2026, and finishing at $144.65 on September 4, 2026 — a decline of approximately 13.9%. The pullback was not a straight line; the stock climbed to an intraday high above $207 in mid-August before surrendering those gains and sliding into early September.
The quarterly picture is even weaker. From a close of $204.40 on June 4, 2026, shares have fallen roughly 29% through September 4. This multi-month downtrend reflects a sharp post-earnings rally in late June that quickly faded as investors digested softer forward guidance, negative free-cash-flow expectations, and ongoing concerns around the SCAR contract and accounting controls.
What Drove AVAV Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The most recent leg of the decline was driven by a combination of execution and financial-reporting concerns rather than a single event. Analysts across several firms, including BofA, Canaccord, Piper Sandler, Stifel, and KeyBanc, trimmed price targets during the period while generally maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings. RBC moved to a Sector Perform rating, and UBS kept a Neutral stance, with both pointing to heavier investment, capacity-expansion spending, and contract-timing risks.
Sentiment also remained weighed down by the fallout from the U.S. Space Force's decision to reopen bidding on the $1.4 billion SCAR satellite-communications program, which had been expected to contribute meaningful annual revenue. Related disclosures — an $89 million goodwill impairment, restated results, and an identified material weakness in internal controls — continued to fuel shareholder lawsuits and concerns about oversight.
Offsetting some of this pressure, AeroVironment announced positive operational developments, including a $464.8 million U.S. Army production contract for its Enduring High Energy Laser program and a $100 million investment in a new company-owned campus. However, these items were not enough to halt the slide, as investors focused on near-term profitability and cash-flow headwinds.
What Drove AVAV Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly downtrend traces back to a broader reset in expectations. AeroVironment reported record fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results on June 29, 2026, with revenue of $641.6 million and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.84, both above consensus. Shares initially surged, but the rally faded as investors scrutinized the fiscal 2027 outlook.
Management guided to fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.02 to $3.34, below what many analysts had modeled, while signaling that free cash flow would be negative due to capital expenditures of 12% to 14% of revenue. The company also indicated that revenue and adjusted EBITDA would be heavily weighted to the second half of the fiscal year, tied in part to anticipated government continuing-resolution budget delays. These factors, combined with the SCAR-related impairments, litigation, and control deficiencies, defined the stock's multi-month decline.
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AVAV Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to shape AeroVironment's stock. The most immediate is execution against fiscal 2027 guidance, particularly the timing of revenue recognition given expectations for a continuing resolution in the government budget cycle and a back-half-weighted year. Investors will also monitor whether capital-expenditure plans and capacity expansions translate into improved margins and free cash flow over time.
Contract momentum remains important, including follow-on awards in counter-UAS, loitering munitions, and directed energy, as well as the resolution of the SCAR program and any replacement space-related work. The status of shareholder litigation and remediation of the disclosed internal-control weakness could also influence sentiment. Finally, broader defense-budget trends and demand for autonomous and counter-drone systems will continue to set the macro backdrop for the company's longer-term growth narrative.
Disclaimer
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Momentum Indicator for AVAV turns positive, indicating new upward trend
AVAV saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 72 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AVAV just turned positive on September 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where AVAV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
AVAV moved above its 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AVAV advanced for three days, in 246 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AVAV moved out of overbought territory on August 13, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for AVAV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AVAV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
AVAV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 17, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AVAV entered a downward trend on September 18, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AVAV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.849) is normal, around the industry mean (6.438). P/E Ratio (149.026) is within average values for comparable stocks, (59.605). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.565) is also within normal values, averaging (2.578). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.893) is also within normal values, averaging (18.155).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AVAV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a developer of unmanned aircraft and charging systems
Industry AerospaceDefense