BURL stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Burlington Stores Inc is an off-price retailer offering an extensive selection of in-season, fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, baby, beauty, footwear, accessories, home, toys, gifts, and coats... Show more
Why Burlington Stores (BURL) Stock Is Down -26.7% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Burlington Stores shares fell roughly 26.7% over the 30 days ended August 28, 2026, declining from $372.19 to $272.95 despite a stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings report.
- The company's Q2 fiscal 2026 results beat adjusted EPS estimates but missed on revenue, while comparable-store sales decelerated to 2% from 5% a year earlier.
- Third-quarter EPS guidance of $1.60–$1.70 came in well below the roughly $2.04 consensus, driving the bulk of the post-earnings selloff.
- Management chose to reinvest $55 million in tariff refunds into lower customer prices rather than retain the earnings windfall, pressuring near-term margins.
- Full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $11.77–$11.97, and analysts maintain a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating with an average price target near $371.50.
Burlington Stores (BURL) Company Overview and Market Position
Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE: BURL) is one of the largest off-price retailers in the United States, selling branded apparel, footwear, accessories, baby products, beauty items, and home merchandise at everyday low prices. Headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey, the company traces its roots to the Burlington Coat Factory brand founded in the early 1970s and has since evolved into a broad off-price retailer operating roughly 1,287 stores across 47 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico.
Burlington's merchandising model relies on sourcing excess inventory, closeouts, and opportunistic buys from manufacturers and other retailers, allowing it to offer brand-name goods below traditional department-store prices. Investors follow the stock closely because of its aggressive store-expansion strategy — management is targeting more than 1,500 locations by 2028 and roughly 115 net new store openings in fiscal 2026 — combined with a track record of converting sales growth into margin expansion and double-digit earnings growth.
Burlington Stores (BURL) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the 30 days ended August 28, 2026, BURL shares dropped approximately 26.7%, from a closing price of $372.19 on July 30, 2026 to $272.95 — a decline of about $99 per share. The move was concentrated in late August: shares slid roughly 7.6% on August 27 following the second-quarter earnings release and fell another 5.9% on August 28.
The quarterly picture is more nuanced. Over the trailing three months, the stock began near $324 in late May, rallied to an intraday high around $378 in late July, then reversed sharply lower. Measured from late-May levels, shares ended the period down roughly 16%, with the entire decline occurring after the late-July peak.
What Drove BURL Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst was the company's second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report, released on August 27, 2026. Burlington delivered adjusted EPS of $2.37, up 38% year over year and above the roughly $2.17 consensus, marking its 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Total sales rose 11% to approximately $3.0 billion, but revenue narrowly missed the roughly $3.02–$3.03 billion consensus, and comparable-store sales growth slowed to 2% from 5% a year earlier.
Investors focused on the forward outlook. Third-quarter guidance for adjusted EPS of $1.60–$1.70 fell short of the approximately $2.04 consensus, with management projecting an operating-margin decline of 60 to 80 basis points. That reflects the company's decision to reinvest $55 million in tariff refunds — worth about $0.64 per share — into sharper customer pricing across the third and fourth quarters rather than banking the benefit. While full-year EPS guidance was raised to $11.77–$11.97, the near-term margin drag and a more cautious read on moderate- and lower-income consumers weighed on sentiment.
Analyst and insider activity also contributed. Citigroup downgraded the stock to Neutral in early August, while UBS raised its price target to $440 and Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating. Insiders sold more than $10 million of shares over the prior three months, adding to cautious positioning during a period when the stock's premium valuation came under scrutiny.
What Drove BURL Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter began with momentum. Strong first-quarter results — including 14% total sales growth and 6% comparable-store growth — plus record store openings and margin expansion pushed shares toward their late-July high near $378. Through the first half of the quarter, the off-price value proposition and the company's "Burlington 2.0" smaller-store growth model supported investor enthusiasm.
The reversal reflected a combination of factors: a premium valuation (roughly 24x trailing earnings), cooling comparable-sales trends, and broader concerns about consumer spending pressure on lower-income households. The late-August earnings report then crystallized those concerns, as weaker Q3 guidance and the tariff-refund reinvestment decision triggered a sharp repricing in a matter of days.
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BURL Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, the most important near-term catalysts include Burlington's third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report, expected in late November, and the critical holiday quarter, for which management has guided adjusted EPS of $5.05–$5.15. Investors will be watching whether comparable-store sales hold within the guided 1%–3% range and whether reinvesting tariff refunds into lower prices actually lifts traffic and conversion.
Broader consumer-health indicators — including gasoline prices, wage growth, and spending patterns among moderate- and lower-income households — remain key swing factors for the off-price sector. The pace of store openings, margin sustainability, and the company's progress toward its 1,500-store target will also shape the longer-term narrative. Finally, analyst expectations, with an average price target near $371.50, will continue to influence sentiment as new data arrives.
Disclaimer
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BURL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for BURL entered a downward trend on August 28, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 200 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 200 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 11, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BURL as a result. In of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BURL turned negative on August 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
BURL moved below its 50-day moving average on August 17, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BURL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BURL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BURL advanced for three days, in of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
BURL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BURL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BURL's P/B Ratio (8.562) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.358). P/E Ratio (24.524) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.016). BURL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.802). BURL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.034). P/S Ratio (1.433) is also within normal values, averaging (0.732).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BURL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of men's, women's and children's apparel
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail