CBRS stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Cerebras Systems Inc is an AI company... Show more
Why Cerebras Systems (CBRS) Stock Is Down -40% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Cerebras Systems (CBRS) shares have declined roughly 40% over the last 30 days, falling from about $198 in mid-September to around $118.
- Reports that OpenAI selected Nvidia GPUs for the "Ultrafast" mode of its GPT-6.1 Sol model renewed concerns about Cerebras' customer concentration.
- A post-IPO lockup expiration in mid-October freed an estimated 19.4 million shares for potential sale, adding supply pressure.
- Fundamentals remain strong, with second-quarter core revenue up 103% year over year and a $25.4 billion backlog.
- Wall Street's consensus remains a Strong Buy, with an average price target near $292.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) Company Overview and Market Position
Cerebras Systems is an artificial intelligence infrastructure company that designs and manufactures AI compute platforms built around its proprietary Wafer-Scale Engine (WSE) — a chip spanning an entire silicon wafer and designed to deliver faster inference than conventional GPUs. The company sells its CS-3 hardware systems and operates a fast-inference cloud. Founded in 2015 and headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, Cerebras completed its initial public offering on the Nasdaq in May 2026 and competes most directly with Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) in the market for AI inference computing.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, CBRS has fallen from a closing price of about $198 in mid-September to roughly $118, a decline of approximately 40%. The move accelerated in October as the stock set fresh post-IPO lows. Over the trailing three-month period, the shares have dropped roughly 37%, from the high-$180s in late July to current levels, despite a brief rally to about $262 in mid-August following second-quarter results. The stock now trades well below its $185 IPO price and is down more than 50% from its 52-week high of $386.34.
What Drove CBRS Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
Several factors weighed on Cerebras shares during the period. First, analysts and media reported that OpenAI had chosen Nvidia GPUs rather than Cerebras chips to power the "Ultrafast" mode of its GPT-6.1 Sol model. Because OpenAI is Cerebras' largest customer and accounts for a substantial share of its roughly $25.4 billion remaining performance obligations, the report raised questions about the durability of the relationship, even though OpenAI's chief executive publicly reaffirmed the partnership.
Second, a post-IPO lockup expiration in mid-October freed an estimated 19.4 million shares for potential sale, and subsequent insider selling amplified the supply overhang. Third, broader weakness across AI and semiconductor stocks — including a decline in the iShares Semiconductor ETF — added to the pressure. Finally, a report suggesting OpenAI's annualized revenue was lower than earlier estimates contributed to a more cautious tone around AI demand.
What Drove CBRS Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly decline reflects a broader repricing of a stock that debuted at a premium valuation. After surging roughly 68% on its first day of trading and touching a 52-week high of $386.34, CBRS has given back those gains as investors focused on profitability and execution risk. Although the company reported record second-quarter results — core revenue of $209.9 million, up 103% year over year, and raised full-year guidance of $880 million to $890 million — core gross margin declined sequentially to 40.6% as Cerebras temporarily rented back systems to meet demand. Persistent operating losses, heavy reliance on OpenAI, and intense competition from larger rivals have kept sentiment cautious even as the $25.4 billion backlog provides long-term revenue visibility.
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CBRS Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors will be watching several catalysts in the months ahead. Cerebras is scheduled to report third-quarter results, with attention on whether core revenue lands within the guided range of $214 million to $216 million and whether core gross margin troughs near 38% to 40% as management expects. Execution on the multi-year OpenAI agreement, progress toward the general availability of Cerebras systems on AWS Bedrock in early 2027, and signs of customer diversification beyond OpenAI are likely to shape sentiment. Margin recovery, data-center buildout, and the competitive response from larger chipmakers also remain key variables to monitor.
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Momentum Indicator for CBRS turns negative, indicating new downward trend
CBRS saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 8 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 8 of the 8 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CBRS turned negative on September 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 1 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 1 of the 1 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
CBRS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CBRS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for CBRS entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 16 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
CBRS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.876) is normal, around the industry mean (6.022). P/E Ratio (-23.805) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.769). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (63.694) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CBRS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CBRS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
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