Based in Chicago, CME Group operates exchanges giving investors, suppliers, and businesses the ability to trade futures and derivatives based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign currencies, energy, metals, and commodities... Show more
CME Group operates the world's largest derivatives marketplace, connecting buyers and sellers of futures and options across interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, and metals. Its exchanges include the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), NYMEX, and COMEX, hosting benchmark contracts such as SOFR and U.S. Treasury futures, major equity index futures, and widely traded energy and agricultural products. The company earns most of its revenue from clearing and transaction fees, supplemented by market data and information services.
Investors follow CME closely because its volumes tend to rise when market uncertainty, interest-rate expectations, and hedging demand increase. Its competitive strengths include deep liquidity, a centralized clearinghouse, and strong network effects that make it the venue of choice for institutional risk management, positioning it against peers such as Intercontinental Exchange and Nasdaq.
Over the last 30 days, CME shares rose from a closing price of $263.24 on September 28 to approximately $292.50, a gain of about 11.1%. The advance was not a straight line: the stock consolidated near the low-$260s in late September before breaking higher through October, reaching $308.06 on October 26 and then giving back roughly 4.7% on October 27 as investors locked in profits.
The quarterly trend tells a similar but slightly stronger story. From a closing level near $260.00 in late July, the stock has advanced roughly 12.5%, reflecting a sustained recovery in trading activity and investor sentiment. Even so, CME remains below its 52-week high of $329.16 reached in early March 2026, indicating that the recent rally represents a partial retracement rather than a new all-time high.
The principal catalyst was the company's third-quarter earnings report released on October 21. CME posted record third-quarter revenue of $1.74 billion, up about 13% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share of $3.02, slightly ahead of the roughly $2.99 consensus. Average daily volume reached a record 29.4 million contracts, up 16% from the prior-year period, with double-digit growth across all six asset classes. Market data revenue climbed 20% to a record $243 million, and the company returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
The print triggered a wave of constructive analyst actions. Morgan Stanley raised its price target, J.P. Morgan upgraded the stock, and UBS, Piper Sandler, and Rothschild & Co also lifted targets, signaling that the volume and fee momentum was being rewarded. The rally was further supported by record product activity, including record corn futures volume of 1.21 million contracts on October 9 and record September open interest in soybean futures.
The late-month pullback reflected profit-taking after a rapid two-week run, alongside a competitive overhang. On October 16, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission argued that CME's lawsuit concerning a rival venue's Bitcoin perpetual contract should be dismissed, refocusing attention on crypto-derivatives competition and giving investors a reason to trim gains near recent highs.
The quarterly advance has been powered by a broader rise in hedging and trading demand. Sustained macroeconomic volatility, shifting interest-rate expectations, and uncertainty ahead of Federal Reserve policy decisions have lifted activity across rates, energy, agricultural, and equity-index products. CME ended the third quarter with open interest of 128 million contracts, subsequently exceeding 133 million, and reported record international average daily volume of 9 million contracts, up 22% year over year, led by 40% growth in energy products.
This larger narrative — rising global participation and record volumes rather than any single event — underpins the stock's multi-month recovery. The pullback from the 52-week high in early 2026 gave way to a gradual re-rating as investors recognized that volume strength was broad-based and durable.
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Looking ahead, investors are likely to focus on fourth-quarter volume trends, which management indicated were running ahead of the prior year's record pace. Interest-rate policy and the path of Federal Reserve decisions remain central, since rate volatility directly influences demand for CME's interest-rate complex. The resolution of the crypto-derivatives litigation and the broader competitive landscape in digital assets could also shape sentiment. Additional factors include the early reception of new product launches, analyst price targets relative to current valuation, and the sustainability of shareholder returns given an elevated dividend payout ratio. As always, these considerations carry risk in both directions rather than a guaranteed outcome.
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The 10-day moving average for CME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CME as a result. In 53 of 106 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CME just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CME's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
CME moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 50-day moving average for CME moved above the 200-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CME advanced for three days, in 169 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 137 of 262 cases where CME Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CME moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 17 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 40%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 30 of 69 cases where CME's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
CME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.152) is normal, around the industry mean (4.062). P/E Ratio (25.843) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.867). CME's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.578) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. CME's P/S Ratio (14.535) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.166).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
an operator of securities and commodity exchanges
Industry FinancialPublishingServices