The $425 central target is calculated from 11 individual analyst price targets that can be attributed to specific firms, with a low of $350 and a high of $500. That is a notably wide spread of $150, reflecting how differently the Street weighs the company's growth against its regulatory and credit exposure.
Recent post-earnings revisions illustrate the split. After third-quarter results, DAVE saw several firms trim targets: UBS lowered its target to $450, Canaccord Genuity held at $450, Keefe Bruyette cut to $380 from $435, and JPMorgan reduced its target to $435 from $480. On the cautious side, Evercore ISI and Monness Crespi both sit at $350. Yet other firms moved higher, with Lake Street raising its target to $480 and Loop Capital maintaining the Street-high $500. In between, B. Riley set $449, Piper Sandler $390, and Seaport Research $422.
The aggregate view remains a "Buy" consensus with no sell ratings, but the dispersion between $350 and $500 shows analysts disagree sharply on whether regulatory risk and credit costs will compress the valuation or whether strong growth and profitability will drive the shares back toward prior highs.
With the stock recently trading near $282.65, reaching $425 implies upside of roughly 50% — a substantial move. Dave's market capitalization is about $3.6 billion, and the shares trade at a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of roughly 20, with a forward P/E near 15.
Fundamentals remain strong on the top line. In its latest quarter, revenue rose 31% year over year to about $198 million, adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) climbed 39% to $82 million, and the company raised full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $746 million to $750 million and adjusted EBITDA of $327 million to $330 million. The challenge is that the stock fell roughly 18% after earnings, because adjusted EPS (earnings per share) came in below consensus, credit-loss provisions exceeded forecasts, and the company disclosed regulatory subpoenas.
Several factors could underpin a path toward the $425 target. Revenue growth of roughly 31% and record member additions demonstrate durable demand for ExtraCash, Dave's small-dollar cash-advance product. Management also lifted guidance, signaling confidence in near-term momentum. The company's profitability profile — a roughly 40% adjusted EBITDA margin and positive free cash flow — supports a reasonable valuation case, especially with a forward P/E near 15.
Capital-return actions add support: Dave has an upsized $300 million buyback authorization and added liquidity, which can both signal management confidence and reduce share count. A consensus "Buy" rating, with no sell ratings across tracked analysts, reflects generally favorable sentiment, even if individual targets vary widely.
The principal obstacle is regulatory risk. Dave disclosed subpoenas and inquiries from government departments in Connecticut, Maryland, and New York, including the New York State Department of Financial Services and the New York attorney general, and it continues to contest a Department of Justice lawsuit. These are inquiries rather than findings, but they land on a business model built around fee and tip monetization of cash advances.
Credit risk is a second concern. ExtraCash originations rose 23% to $2.5 billion, and the provision for credit losses reached $37 million, above management's own forecast. Faster growth in lending necessarily carries higher potential losses, and the company's non-GAAP gross margin slipped from 72% to 70% sequentially. If monetization and credit losses move together, profit growth could lag revenue growth, pressuring the valuation. The stock's high beta of about 4.0 also means sharp swings can work against shareholders.
The shares remain roughly 39% below their 52-week high of $458.25, which now stands as a major resistance level on any recovery toward $425. The 52-week low of $152.21 marks the floor established earlier in the year. The $300 level is a notable psychological threshold, and the $350 area — where several analysts cluster targets — could serve as an intermediate resistance zone. A sustained move above $350 would signal buyers are reasserting control, while failure to hold gains above $300 could keep the stock range-bound.
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual firms use their own valuation frameworks and timeframes. Investors should watch upcoming earnings and guidance updates, any changes to analyst targets or ratings, and further developments in the regulatory inquiries and the Department of Justice matter. Credit metrics such as the provision for credit losses, delinquency trends, and gross margins will be critical, as will broader fintech sector sentiment and interest-rate conditions that affect funding costs.
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The $425 central target, derived from roughly 11 analyst targets ranging from $350 to $500, implies a substantial gain of about 50% from the recent price near $282.65. Support comes from accelerating revenue, raised guidance, solid profitability, and an upsized buyback. The principal obstacles are regulatory scrutiny and rising credit costs, which explain why analyst views diverge so widely. Whether Dave can reach $425 will depend on how it balances growth with credit discipline and resolves the regulatory questions. Investors should monitor earnings, credit metrics, and regulatory developments before drawing any conclusions.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DAVE has been loosely correlated with TOST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DAVE jumps, then TOST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DAVE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAVE | 100% | -3.11% | ||
| TOST - DAVE | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.72% | ||
| PAY - DAVE | 46% Loosely correlated | -0.26% | ||
| CHYM - DAVE | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.03% | ||
| BILL - DAVE | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.13% | ||
| CPAY - DAVE | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.36% | ||
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| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DAVE | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| DAVE | 100% | -3.11% |
| Packaged Software industry (222 stocks) | 24% Poorly correlated | +1.85% |
| Technology Services industry (396 stocks) | 20% Poorly correlated | +1.58% |