Can Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Stock Reach $40?

Key Takeaways

• The $40 price target represents the Street-high analyst forecast and sits approximately 42% above the stock's recent closing price near $28.
• Bullish catalysts include the strategic partnership with Novo Nordisk (NVO) for branded GLP-1 distribution and improving credit card spending data showing sales growth accelerating into the high teens by June 2026.
• Key obstacles include softening subscriber retention for oral Wegovy, a net loss of $92.1 million in Q1 2026, and heavy insider selling activity outpacing insider buying nearly 3-to-1 over the past three months.
• Major resistance sits near the $35–$37 zone, where Bank of America and other analysts have placed their price targets; a decisive break above that range would likely be required before $40 becomes attainable.
• The stock carries a beta of 2.34, indicating roughly double the volatility of the broader market, which means any move toward $40 could come with sharp swings in both directions.

Why Investors Are Watching the $40 Level

The $40 price target has become a focal point for Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) investors after Canaccord Genuity raised its target to that level in early July 2026, making it the highest official forecast on Wall Street. Canaccord analyst Maria Ripps cited improving credit card spending trends, a strong rollout of branded weight-loss drugs, and growing optimism around the company's peptide business as the primary drivers behind the upgrade. With the stock trading around $28 following a dramatic collapse from its all-time high of $68.74 in February 2025, the $40 level represents both a psychological recovery milestone and a test of whether the company's post-crisis business model can deliver durable growth.

Company Overview

Hims & Hers Health operates a consumer-first telehealth platform connecting patients with licensed healthcare professionals across the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and several European markets. The company offers prescription and non-prescription products spanning sexual health, hair loss, dermatology, mental health, and weight loss. After generating $2.35 billion in revenue in 2025 — a 59% year-over-year increase — the company's growth narrative shifted dramatically in early 2026 when the FDA declared the semaglutide shortage resolved, effectively ending its high-margin compounded GLP-1 business and triggering a 78% stock decline from peak to trough.

What Could Drive the Next Leg Higher

The most significant catalyst for reaching $40 is the company's March 2026 partnership with Novo Nordisk, which transformed Hims & Hers from a seller of compounded semaglutide into an authorized distributor of branded Wegovy and Ozempic. According to Novo Nordisk executives, Hims & Hers has become one of the pharmaceutical giant's most significant telehealth partners. Barclays raised its price target to $39 following the deal, and the partnership has already begun to restore revenue momentum after Q1 2026 revenue of $608 million showed only 4% year-over-year growth during the transition period.

Additional growth drivers include the company's international expansion — with revenue from markets outside the U.S. surging from $7 million to $78 million in a single quarter — and the acquisition of Eucalyptus, an Australian telehealth provider. The company also launched generic semaglutide in Canada and maintains long-term targets of at least $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) by 2030.

What Could Prevent the Move

The path to $40 faces meaningful headwinds. Q1 2026 results revealed a net loss of $92.1 million, compared to $50 million in net income a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $44 million from $91 million year-over-year, while restructuring charges related to the compounding business exit totaled $33 million. Bank of America analyst Allen Lutz cautioned that retention rates for new oral Wegovy subscribers may prove softer than anticipated, noting that competitor Ro — which launched oral Wegovy ahead of Hims & Hers — is already experiencing declining new customers and a plateauing subscriber base. A meaningful portion of patients could churn once the introductory $39 monthly subscription fee rises to $149 in the second month.

Insider activity also warrants attention. Over the past three months, insiders have sold approximately $3.9 million worth of shares while purchasing only $1.2 million, with the CFO alone selling over 142,000 shares. While insider selling can reflect personal portfolio diversification rather than company-specific concerns, the disparity between buys and sells introduces an element of caution.

Analyst Opinions and Price Targets

Wall Street consensus presents a mixed picture. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it a Hold, 2 rate it a Buy, 1 rates it a Strong Buy, and 1 rates it a Sell. The average 12-month price target stands at approximately $29.77 — only about 6% above recent trading levels. However, the range is notably wide: Morgan Stanley sits at the low end with a $21 target, while Canaccord Genuity's $40 target anchors the high end. Barclays and Bank of America have issued targets of $39 and $37 respectively, suggesting that major investment banks see a plausible path toward the upper $30s, though the consensus implies the $40 level may prove challenging within the next twelve months.

Technical Levels That Matter

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has rebuilt a base after bottoming at $13.74 in February 2026. The $27–$28 zone has emerged as near-term support, with the 52-week low of $13.74 representing the ultimate floor established during the post-FDA selloff. On the upside, resistance has formed around the $35–$37 range — an area where multiple analyst targets converge and where selling pressure previously emerged. A sustained move above $35 would likely need to coincide with improving fundamentals before $40 becomes technically achievable. The stock's beta of 2.34 means price swings will be amplified relative to broader market moves, making technical breakouts and breakdowns particularly consequential.

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Final Assessment

The $40 target for Hims & Hers Health appears achievable but not straightforward. The company's pivot from compounded to branded GLP-1 distribution through its Novo Nordisk partnership provides a legitimate growth runway, and improving credit card spending data suggests the business recovery is gaining traction. However, the stock must first overcome near-term resistance in the $35–$37 range, prove that Wegovy subscriber retention holds up beyond introductory pricing, and demonstrate a credible path back to profitability after Q1 2026's steep loss. The wide dispersion in analyst targets — from $21 to $40 — reflects genuine uncertainty about the pace and durability of the company's recovery. Investors monitoring this name should watch the upcoming August 10 earnings report, FDA decisions on peptide compounding, and subscriber retention metrics as the most critical variables in the journey toward $40.

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