Why GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) Is Up +70% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- INTW gained roughly 70% over the last 30 days, reflecting a powerful rally in its sole underlying exposure, Intel (INTC).
- The fund seeks 2x (200%) of Intel's daily return, magnifying both gains and losses for short-term traders.
- Over the last quarter, INTW is still down approximately 38%, underscoring a sharp summer selloff followed by a steep September rebound.
- Primary catalysts include surging AI-driven demand for server CPUs, agentic AI adoption, and renewed foundry momentum at Intel.
- As a daily-reset leveraged product, INTW carries elevated volatility and compounding risk and is designed for short holding periods, not buy-and-hold positioning.
GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) Overview and Portfolio Exposure
The GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) is a single-stock leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, equal to 2x (200%) of the daily percentage change in the common stock of Intel Corporation. Launched in February 2025 and issued by GraniteShares, the fund is non-diversified and is built primarily with derivatives rather than a direct equity position.
Instead of holding Intel shares outright, INTW obtains its exposure through total return swaps on Intel, collateralized by U.S. Treasury bills, money market instruments, and cash. Its holdings list is therefore small, consisting mainly of swap receivables, Treasury securities, and cash. The fund carries a net expense ratio of 1.50% and had assets under management (AUM) of roughly $700 million in recent reporting, reflecting strong investor interest amid Intel's rally.
Because INTW is concentrated in a single security and resets its leverage daily, its returns over periods longer than one day can diverge materially from simply doubling Intel's cumulative performance. This structure explains both the fund's outsized recent gain and its elevated volatility.
GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
INTW climbed approximately 70% over the last 30 days, advancing from a close near $18.36 to roughly $31.28. The move tracked a nearly 40% monthly surge in Intel shares, amplified by the fund's 2x daily leverage. The advance was not linear: INTW was range-bound in the low-$20s through much of early September before breaking higher in the final two weeks of the month.
The last quarter tells a different story. About three months earlier, INTW traded near $50.67, meaning the fund remains down roughly 38% over that span despite the recent rebound. Intel and its leveraged ETFs sold off sharply during the summer, with INTW falling toward the mid-teens before bottoming in late August. The result has been a volatile, V-shaped pattern: a steep three-month drawdown followed by one of the strongest one-month recoveries in the single-stock leveraged category.
What Drove INTW Price in the Last 30 Days
The rally was driven almost entirely by Intel, which re-rated higher as investors reassessed the role of CPUs in the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout. After years in which graphics processing units (GPUs) dominated the AI narrative, market participants increasingly recognized that central processing units are essential for orchestration, general-purpose computing, and inference in AI data centers.
Several developments fueled the move. Meta's AI assistant, Meta (META) Muse, gained rapid traction in app stores, reinforcing expectations for a new wave of server CPU demand. Intel reported that its Data Center and AI segment grew revenue 59% year over year to $6.3 billion in its latest quarter, while total quarterly revenue rose 25% to $16.1 billion. Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan noted that Intel can currently meet only about half of customer demand for its processors, a supply constraint that supports pricing and near-term momentum.
Foundry news added further fuel. Reports of a potential strategic partnership with SK Hynix to expand memory production at Intel's Ohio facility triggered a double-digit single-day jump in Intel shares in late September. Earlier in the year, Google selected Intel to manufacture its Tensor Processing Units, and a Brookfield-managed investor committed up to $30 billion to Intel's Arizona fabrication sites. Because INTW is a leveraged, single-stock vehicle, these catalysts translated directly into an amplified fund-level gain.
What Drove INTW Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader three-month trend reflects a rotation out of and then back into Intel. During the summer, semiconductor names faced profit-taking and valuation concerns after a prolonged AI-driven advance, and Intel's leveraged products gave back a large share of their earlier gains. INTW slid from roughly $50 in late June to the mid-teens by late August, a drawdown exceeding 60% from its quarterly peak.
September marked a sharp reversal. As AI-agent adoption accelerated and Intel's data-center and foundry narratives strengthened, capital flowed back into the stock, and INTW's 2x structure converted that recovery into an outsized rebound. The quarter thus illustrates the defining feature of daily-reset leveraged ETFs: extended directional moves are amplified, while choppy or reversing markets can erode value through volatility decay even when the underlying security recovers.
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INTW ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next
INTW's near-term path will continue to mirror Intel, and several factors warrant close attention. Intel's next earnings report is a central catalyst, as investors assess whether supply can catch up with demand and whether data-center revenue growth remains above 20%. Foundry execution—including progress at the Ohio and Arizona sites and customer commitments—will also shape sentiment, as will competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which continues to gain server-CPU share, and NVIDIA (NVDA) in accelerators.
Macroeconomic conditions remain relevant, particularly interest-rate expectations and enterprise AI capital spending. Intel's valuation has expanded sharply, with the stock trading at a premium to historical norms, which raises the sensitivity of both Intel and INTW to any disappointment. Because the fund resets leverage daily, sustained trends favor the product, while high volatility or mean-reversion can hurt returns over multi-day holding periods. Investors should therefore monitor the balance between fundamental catalysts and the inherent risks of leveraged, single-stock exposure.
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Momentum Indicator for INTW turns positive, indicating new upward trend
INTW saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 04, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 27 of the 29 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
INTW moved above its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for INTW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 5 of 5 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +28.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where INTW advanced for three days, in 79 of 86 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 71 of 74 cases where INTW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for INTW moved out of overbought territory on September 25, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 15 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 15 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 21 of 22 cases where INTW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where INTW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
INTW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.