Life Time Group Holdings Inc is a lifestyle and leisure brand offering health, fitness, and wellness experiences to a community... Show more
Life Time Group Holdings (LTH) distinguishes itself in the fragmented fitness industry through its "athletic country club" model, operating over 190 large-format centers across the U.S. and Canada. Unlike low-cost competitors such as Planet Fitness, which target mass-market volume, LTH focuses on affluent demographics with comprehensive offerings including fitness floors, pools, tennis courts, spas (LifeSpa), cafes (LifeCafe), childcare, and events. This premium positioning yields higher average revenue per center membership, supported by in-center revenue streams like Dynamic Personal Training (DPT) and medi-spa services.
The company's competitive moat stems from brand loyalty, economies of scale in large facilities, and a shift toward higher-dues memberships by phasing out legacy qualified medical plans. As new centers ramp faster than historical averages—often within three years—LTH aims for elevated returns on invested capital (ROIC). Expansion into mixed-use developments with residential components further embeds its ecosystem, though it faces rivals like Equinox in the luxury segment and boutique studios for specialized services. Medium-term, LTH's asset-light leasing strategy and digital integration via the Life Time app position it for resilient growth in a wellness market projected to exceed $11 trillion globally by 2034.
Life Time's trajectory hinges on execution of its 2026 growth plan, including 12-14 new club openings—primarily large-format builds totaling 1.2 million square feet, with six to seven in Q4. These developments target high-income markets, promising accelerated membership growth of 2-3% by year-end and positive free cash flow.
Sale-leaseback transactions, with $200 million already secured in April 2026 and up to $400 million targeted annually, will fund expansion while deleveraging net debt to 1.6x adjusted EBITDA. Upcoming quarterly earnings will spotlight membership metrics, same-center revenue (expected 8-11%), and in-center revenue acceleration from premium services.
Analyst sentiment has turned more optimistic post-Q1 results, with consensus ratings at "Strong Buy" and price targets averaging $40.79 (high $45, low $36). Recent upgrades—Mizuho to $44 (Outperform), Wells Fargo to $38 (Overweight)—cite improving club economics and membership optimization. Share repurchases under a $500 million authorization and events like the Phoenix 10K acquisition could further boost sentiment, though execution risks remain key.
The fitness and wellness sector benefits from structural tailwinds like rising health consciousness, premiumization, and integration of AI-driven tools such as LTH's L•AI•C companion for personalized coaching. Affluent consumers prioritize experiential wellness, insulating LTH somewhat from downturns, as evidenced by resilient in-center spending.
Macro sensitivities include interest rates impacting construction costs and debt service ($86 million expected in 2026), inflation on wages/labor, and consumer spending amid potential recession risks. Geopolitical tensions and tariffs elevate supply chain expenses, though LTH's focus on high-income members (less price-elastic) and asset-light model mitigates volatility. Broader trends like GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and hybrid digital-physical fitness favor LTH's ecosystem, but low switching costs and competition from home equipment pose challenges in slowdowns.
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Life Time enters 2026 with raised guidance: revenue $3.32-3.35 billion (up ~8-11%), adjusted EBITDA $925-940 million, and net income $340-345 million, reflecting 12-14 new centers and membership acceleration. Long-term, structural drivers include market expansion into 200+ clubs, cost efficiencies from scale, and margin expansion via premium services (targeting $400+ million annual free cash flow by 2030). Technology transitions like AI personalization and digital platforms bolster retention, while residential integrations create sticky ecosystems.
Competitive threats from budget gyms and digital disruptors loom, alongside regulatory scrutiny on memberships. Capital allocation prioritizes growth and buybacks, with consensus expectations of sustained ROIC improvement shaping positive sentiment. Key watches: membership churn post-medical plan phase-out, sale-leaseback execution, and macro resilience.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LTH has been loosely correlated with AS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 35% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LTH jumps, then AS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LTH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTH | 100% | +1.11% | ||
| AS - LTH | 35% Loosely correlated | -1.95% | ||
| YETI - LTH | 35% Loosely correlated | -2.10% | ||
| PLNT - LTH | 33% Poorly correlated | -3.62% | ||
| OSW - LTH | 31% Poorly correlated | -1.63% | ||
| MSGE - LTH | 31% Poorly correlated | +2.57% | ||
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The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LTH turned positive on June 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where LTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 10, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LTH as a result. In of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LTH advanced for three days, in of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 199 cases where LTH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LTH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
LTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.581) is normal, around the industry mean (3.893). P/E Ratio (21.830) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.359). LTH's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.215). LTH has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.025). P/S Ratio (2.746) is also within normal values, averaging (4.362).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.