LUNR stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Intuitive Machines Inc is a space infrastructure and services company focused on enabling sustained human activity beyond Earth... Show more
Why Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Stock Is Down -25% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Intuitive Machines (LUNR) shares fell about 24.8% over the trailing 30 days, retreating from $18.52 to $13.92.
- The decline reflects a pullback from a sharp August rally, compounded by insider selling and dilution concerns.
- Over the past quarter, the stock has dropped roughly 39% from its mid-June level, extending a broader multi-month downturn.
- Fundamental momentum remains positive, including a record $1.8 billion backlog and a growing pipeline of satellite and NASA awards.
- Execution risk on fixed-price lunar programs and heavy share sales by a major holder remain key investor concerns.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Company Overview and Market Position
Intuitive Machines, Inc. is a Houston, Texas-based space infrastructure and services company. It designs and builds spacecraft, connects space-based networks, and delivers infrastructure services across low-Earth orbit, geostationary orbit, cislunar space, and deep space for civil, national security, and commercial customers.
The company is best known for its lunar program, having completed two NASA lunar lander missions (IM-1 in 2024 and IM-2 in 2025), with additional missions including IM-3, IM-4, and IM-5 on its manifest. It also manufactures the IM 300 and IM 500 satellite bus platforms and has expanded through acquisitions such as Lanteris and Goonhilly Earth Station, broadening its reach into satellites and deep-space communications. Investors follow the stock closely because of its positioning in the fast-growing space economy and its deep relationship with NASA.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, LUNR declined from a closing price of $18.52 on August 19 to $13.92 on September 18, a drop of roughly 24.8%. The move unfolded in stages, with the stock fading from its mid-August peak near $20 before stabilizing in the low-to-mid teens.
The quarterly picture is weaker still. After opening June near $38 and trading around $22.85 by mid-June, shares have slid to the $13.90 level, representing a decline of about 39% from the mid-June mark and roughly 64% from the early-June close. The trend highlights a sustained de-rating despite steady contract momentum.
What Drove LUNR Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The latest 30-day decline was largely a pullback from an unusually strong August advance. Several factors weighed on sentiment:
- Profit-taking after a sharp rally: Shares surged from about $12 in late July to more than $20 by mid-August, and the subsequent unwind erased much of those gains.
- Insider selling: Securities filings showed significant share sales by Kam Ghaffarian, a more-than-10% holder and the company's co-founder, including transactions in August and September.
- Dilution concerns: Analysts and investors have flagged the impact of an expanding share count and potential future capital raises on per-share value.
- Execution risk: The second quarter included a $14.7 million estimate-at-completion adjustment on the IM-4 lunar mission, underscoring the earnings sensitivity of fixed-price programs.
These headwinds overshadowed a series of positive developments, including a September order to build two IM 300 series platforms for an undisclosed customer and the completion of in-orbit testing and handover of the SXM-11 communications satellite to SiriusXM.
What Drove LUNR Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly decline reflects a broader reset in valuation. Second-quarter revenue surged 309.8% year over year to $206.2 million but came in below consensus estimates, while the operating loss widened to $47.1 million. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion and continues to target positive adjusted EBITDA, but the path depends heavily on converting a record $1.8 billion backlog into recognized revenue.
Meanwhile, heavy selling by large holders, including an 11.5-million-share disposition by Advent International in late July, and broader volatility across the space sector added pressure. Rivals such as Rocket Lab (RKLB) and MDA Space (MDA) have also been competing for national security and geostationary satellite work, intensifying the competitive backdrop.
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LUNR Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to shape LUNR's trajectory:
- Backlog conversion: Management expects 25% to 30% of second-quarter backlog to convert to 2026 revenue, making contract definitization and procurement timing critical.
- Mission execution: The timing and success of upcoming launches, including IM-3 targeted for late 2026, remain central to the company's credibility and cash generation.
- Earnings and margin progress: Analysts will focus on whether revenue growth translates into improved gross margins and reduced operating losses.
- Dilution and capital needs: Any additional share issuance or capital raises could pressure the stock further.
- Sector and macro conditions: Interest-rate expectations and investor appetite for speculative growth stocks continue to influence space-sector valuations.
These drivers present both opportunities and risks, and investors should monitor them alongside the company's own disclosures.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
LUNR in -3.44% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 01, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where LUNR declined for three days, in 209 of 249 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
LUNR moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LUNR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
LUNR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LUNR entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LUNR as a result. In 55 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LUNR just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where LUNR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +16.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LUNR advanced for three days, in 174 of 205 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 13 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (6.305). P/E Ratio (8.058) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.116). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.940) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LUNR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LUNR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
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