MAX stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
MediaAlpha Inc provides a platform that enables insurance carriers and distributors to target and acquire customers... Show more
Why MediaAlpha (MAX) Is Down -9% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- MediaAlpha (MAX) stock declined -9% over the past 30 days, driven primarily by a sharp drop following Q1 2026 earnings that missed EPS estimates despite beating revenue expectations.
- Over the past quarter, the stock fell -17%, marked by early February volatility, a mid-quarter recovery, and recent post-earnings weakness.
- Revenue growth and positive full-year free cash flow guidance provided some support, but EPS miss and market reaction overshadowed positives.
- Broader insurtech sector trends and macroeconomic factors contributed to quarterly fluctuations.
- Analyst price targets remain above current levels, averaging around $14.
MediaAlpha (MAX) Company Overview and Market Position
MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) is a marketing technology company that operates an insurance customer acquisition platform. It connects insurance carriers, agents, and distributors with consumers through online channels, leveraging data-driven marketplaces for products like auto, health, and property insurance. The company's core business model relies on performance-based advertising and lead generation, where it earns fees based on qualified consumer actions.
In the competitive insurtech and adtech industry, MediaAlpha holds a strong position by powering major comparison sites and aggregators. Its fundamentals, including scalable technology and exposure to high-demand insurance verticals, underpin recent stock behavior amid shifting consumer demand and digital advertising trends.
MediaAlpha (MAX) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, MAX stock moved from a close of $9.30 on March 31 to the latest available price of $8.49, reflecting a decline of -9%. The period featured initial upside to around $10 before a volatile drop, culminating in a sharp -17% single-day decline on April 30 amid high trading volume.
For the past quarter, the stock fell -17% from approximately $10.23 around late January to $8.49. Performance was range-bound and volatile: an early February plunge to $7.17 lows, followed by a steady climb back toward $10, and ending with recent downside pressure. Overall, the quarter showed trend-driven declines interspersed with recoveries.
What Drove MAX Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst for MAX's 30-day decline was the Q1 2026 earnings release on April 29, where adjusted EBITDA exceeded expectations, but EPS of $0.21 missed consensus estimates of $0.24-$0.25. Revenue hit $310 million, surpassing forecasts of $299 million and marking 17% year-over-year growth, fueled by strong performance in property & casualty (P&C) insurance channels.
Despite upbeat Q2 guidance for $290-$310 million in revenue and full-year free cash flow of $90-$100 million, investor focus on the EPS shortfall triggered a sell-off, with shares dropping over 17% in a single session. This reaction amplified short-term market sentiment shifts in the insurtech space, where profitability metrics weigh heavily. No major analyst upgrades or downgrades coincided, but sector peers faced similar scrutiny on margins.
What Drove MAX Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
MAX's quarterly performance reflected broader volatility in digital insurance marketing. An early February sell-off saw shares plummet from over $10 to $7.17 lows, likely tied to macroeconomic pressures including elevated interest rates impacting insurance demand and consumer spending on policies. This period aligned with softer industry trends in auto insurance quoting.
A recovery ensued, propelled by Q4 2025 earnings beat reported in late February (EPS $0.50 vs. $0.24 expected), boosting confidence in operational leverage. Steady gains through March and early April pushed shares back near $10, supported by institutional buying and positive sector momentum. However, cumulative effects of regulatory scrutiny on adtech and persistent inflation eroded gains, culminating in the recent earnings reaction. Institutional ownership and competitive dynamics in P&C insurance were key sustained influences.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page showcases the top-performing artificial intelligence-driven trading bots from its extensive library of hundreds of bots scanning thousands of tickers across various markets. These curated bots stand out based on recent performance metrics, win rates, and relevance to current market conditions. Strategies range from momentum and mean reversion to trend-following and volatility-based approaches, operating on timeframes like intraday, swing, or longer-term holds. Each bot includes transparent backtested and live trading statistics, profit factors, and drawdown data to help users evaluate fit for their portfolios. Explore Trending AI Robots to discover automated tools tailored for stock analysis and trading opportunities.
MAX Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor Q2 earnings for progress on revenue guidance and margin expansion in health and P&C segments. Upcoming industry developments, such as shifts in insurance quoting volumes amid economic recovery, could influence demand for MediaAlpha's platform. Macro factors like Federal Reserve rate decisions and inflation trends remain critical, given their impact on consumer insurance spending.
Strategic updates on partnerships with carriers or tech integrations warrant attention, alongside any regulatory changes in digital advertising. Analyst revisions post-earnings and institutional flows will signal sentiment shifts. Key risks include prolonged EPS pressure or sector slowdowns, while catalysts may emerge from free cash flow execution.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
MAX's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MAX turned positive on May 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where MAX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 39 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MAX as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MAX moved above its 50-day moving average on June 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MAX advanced for three days, in of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 58 cases where MAX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MAX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
MAX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MAX entered a downward trend on May 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MAX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MAX's P/B Ratio (263.158) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (9.171). P/E Ratio (14.766) is within average values for comparable stocks, (31.503). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (31.838). MAX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.039). P/S Ratio (0.545) is also within normal values, averaging (68.737).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry InternetSoftwareServices