GET DAILY SIGNALSMediaAlpha (MAX) Delivers Record Revenue with +22.7% Growth in Q3 2026
Key Takeaways
- MediaAlpha reported all-time record revenue of $375.9 million for the third quarter of 2026, up 22.7% year over year and well above consensus estimates of roughly $347.7 million.
- Net income rose 66.4% to $29.4 million, with diluted earnings per share of $0.46, comfortably ahead of analyst expectations of $0.33 per share.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $39.5 million, up 35.8% year over year, as operating leverage improved.
- The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $355 million–$375 million and reiterated a full-year 2026 free cash flow outlook of $90 million–$100 million.
- MediaAlpha repurchased about 0.8 million shares for $9 million during the quarter, continuing its capital-return program.
Putting the Results in Context
MediaAlpha runs a programmatic platform that links insurance carriers with online shoppers in property and casualty, health, and life insurance lines. Its quarterly numbers give a timely signal of how actively carriers are investing to acquire new customers. The third quarter built on a solid first half that included record revenue of $316.9 million in the second quarter. With carriers stepping up spending in home and auto insurance under favorable underwriting conditions, the report provides a useful window into demand trends, margin behavior, and the company’s capacity to turn ad budgets into sustained growth as 2027 approaches.
Quarterly Performance Breakdown
MediaAlpha posted third-quarter 2026 revenue of $375.9 million, a 22.7% rise from $306.5 million the prior year and ahead of the roughly $347.7 million consensus estimate. Gross profit increased 27.5% to $55.3 million, lifting the gross margin to 14.7% from 14.2%. Contribution, a non-GAAP metric of revenue minus variable traffic costs, climbed 25.8% to $57.4 million with a 15.3% margin.
Net income grew 66.4% to $29.4 million. Basic earnings per share came in at $0.49 and diluted at $0.46, beating the $0.33 consensus. Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $39.5 million, up 35.8% year over year, helped by stronger operating leverage as spending from P&C carriers expanded beyond the largest accounts. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Management guided fourth-quarter revenue between $355 million and $375 million, contribution of $54 million–$57 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $36 million–$39 million, all pointing to double-digit growth at the midpoint.
Market Reaction and Investor View
MediaAlpha approached the report with positive momentum, having risen roughly 29% over the prior month while the broader market softened. The record top line, earnings beat, and fourth-quarter guidance that implies about 25% revenue growth at the midpoint reinforced the view that carriers are maintaining elevated acquisition spending. Management’s comments on broadening demand beyond the top two carriers and confidence in double-digit growth into 2027 left investors with a constructive takeaway.
Looking Ahead and What to Watch
The fourth-quarter outlook points to continued strength in the core P&C segment, while health insurance is expected to rise to roughly 4% of revenue during the annual enrollment season. Investors will focus on whether home and auto budgets stay resilient and whether the company can further diversify participation beyond its largest customers.
Margin trends remain important. Both contribution and adjusted EBITDA are expected to grow at double-digit rates, though sustained performance will hinge on maintaining favorable take-rates and controlling variable costs. The company reaffirmed its full-year free cash flow target of $90 million–$100 million, highlighting improving cash generation.
Capital allocation continues to draw attention. MediaAlpha bought back shares in the quarter and, as of late October, had completed $82 million of its $100 million authorization. Further buybacks and any steps to reduce liabilities under the tax receivables agreement will be monitored. Offsetting these positives are customer concentration risk and potential changes in insurer marketing budgets, which stay the main variables heading into 2027.
My Take on Using AI Tools for Analysis
When reviewing earnings-driven names like this, I often run a quick scan with Tickeron’s AI tools to cross-check patterns and peer comparisons. The AI Screener helps surface context on technical trends and fundamentals without manual effort, which fits well into a routine earnings review process. It has become a practical part of how I organize ideas around momentum and sector moves.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MAX in downward trend: price expected to drop as it breaks its higher Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026
MAX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 38 of the 43 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MAX moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 26 of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 59 cases where MAX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MAX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MAX as a result. In 77 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MAX just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where MAX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
MAX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MAX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Following a +11.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MAX advanced for three days, in 238 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 166 of 221 cases where MAX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MAX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MAX's P/B Ratio (21.946) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.008). P/E Ratio (6.688) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-58.119). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (17.274). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.970) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.635) is also within normal values, averaging (71.888).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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