Netflix (NFLX) Stock Price, Chart, Company Profile & AI Analysis
Netflix’s relatively simple business model involves only one business, its streaming service... Show more
Why Netflix (NFLX) Stock Is Down -10.9% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Netflix shares fell approximately 10.9% over the last 30 days, driven primarily by a post-earnings selloff following Q2 2026 results released on July 16.
- Q2 revenue of $12.56 billion narrowly missed consensus estimates, and Q3 guidance of $12.86 billion came in below Wall Street's expected $13 billion, triggering at least 20 analyst price-target cuts.
- Management's decision to reduce engagement reporting from semi-annual to annual starting in 2027 rattled investors already concerned about slowing viewing-hour growth and decelerating revenue trends.
- The stock is now trading roughly 46% below its 52-week high, with forward P/E ratios compressing to levels not seen since 2022, reflecting broader skepticism around the streaming giant's growth trajectory.
- Despite near-term headwinds, Netflix's advertising business remains on track to double to approximately $3 billion in 2026, and the company executed a record $4.7 billion in share buybacks during the quarter.
Netflix (NFLX) Company Overview and Market Position
Netflix, Inc. is the world's largest premium subscription streaming service, with more than 325 million paid subscribers globally as of year-end 2025. The company pioneered the direct-to-consumer streaming model and has since expanded into original content production, advertising-supported tiers, live events, gaming, and short-form video. Netflix competes with platforms from DIS, AMZN, WBD, and SPOT, but maintains a commanding lead in global streaming engagement and brand recognition. Investors closely follow NFLX for its ability to sustain double-digit revenue growth, expand operating margins, and generate substantial free cash flow while navigating an increasingly competitive media landscape.
Netflix (NFLX) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 calendar days, Netflix shares declined approximately 10.9%, falling from a closing price of $77.38 on June 18, 2026, to $68.95 on July 17, 2026. The bulk of this decline occurred in a single trading session on July 17, when the stock dropped 7.6% in response to the company's Q2 earnings report and weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance. Intraday, shares briefly traded as low as $65.08, marking a two-year low.
Looking at the broader quarterly picture, NFLX has been under sustained pressure. The stock entered the quarter near $107 in mid-April and has since shed roughly 36% of its value over the three-month period. This extended downturn reflects a series of strategic setbacks—including the failed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, a lost bidding war for Roku, and mounting concerns around slowing engagement and revenue growth momentum. The stock now sits approximately 46% below its 52-week high of $127.75 reached in July 2025.
What Drove NFLX Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The single largest catalyst for Netflix's 30-day decline was its Q2 2026 earnings report, released after market close on July 16. While headline figures were broadly in line with expectations—revenue of $12.56 billion (up 13% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.80 beating estimates by a penny—investors focused intently on forward guidance. Management forecast Q3 revenue of $12.86 billion and EPS of $0.82, both below Wall Street consensus of $13 billion and $0.84, respectively. Revenue growth is projected to decelerate to 11.7% in Q3, down from 13.4% in Q2 and rates above 17% in late 2025.
Compounding the guidance disappointment, Netflix announced it will shift its "What We Watched" engagement report from a semi-annual schedule to an annual cadence starting in 2027. This disclosure reduction—following the 2025 decision to stop reporting quarterly subscriber numbers—was widely criticized by analysts. Pivotal Research called the move "not a great look," while Barclays warned that Netflix is "losing narrative control." Viewing hours grew only 2% in the first half of 2026, adding to concerns despite management's argument that not all engagement hours contribute equally to revenue.
Free cash flow also declined sharply to $1.53 billion from $2.27 billion a year earlier, partly impacted by higher cash taxes tied to the $2.8 billion Warner Bros. termination fee. The combination of softer guidance, reduced transparency, and weakening cash generation triggered a wave of analyst price-target cuts from firms including JPMorgan, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Pivotal Research, TD Cowen, and Goldman Sachs.
What Drove NFLX Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
Netflix's quarterly decline reflects a broader narrative shift that began well before the Q2 print. In late 2025 and early 2026, the company pursued a transformative acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery assets—a deal that ultimately collapsed and left investors questioning the strategic direction of the business. Shortly thereafter, Netflix lost a roughly $22 billion bidding war for Roku to Fox, further amplifying concerns about the company's ability to execute on inorganic growth opportunities. The departure of co-founder Reed Hastings added leadership uncertainty at a critical juncture.
Operationally, revenue growth has decelerated from above 17% in the second half of 2025 to 13.4% in Q2 2026, with further slowing anticipated. Q1 2026 earnings delivered a revenue beat but no upward revision to full-year guidance—a signal the market interpreted as management acknowledging a murkier growth runway. Bank of America downgraded the stock to Hold in mid-June, and institutional investors have been reducing exposure for three consecutive quarters. The stock's compression to approximately 18-21 times forward earnings, while historically cheap for Netflix, reflects the market's recalibration of growth expectations rather than a simple buying opportunity.
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NFLX Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, several factors will determine whether Netflix can stabilize and regain investor confidence. The company's short-form content launch on August 3 represents a direct response to competition from platforms like YouTube and TikTok, and its reception could influence engagement trends. The Women's World Cup, for which Netflix holds exclusive U.S. streaming rights, presents a major live-event catalyst that may drive subscriber acquisition and advertising demand in the second half of 2026.
Investors should closely monitor whether Q3 revenue and EPS land within or below management's guided ranges, as another miss would likely intensify concerns about structural deceleration. The trajectory of the advertising business—targeting roughly $3 billion in 2026 revenue—remains critical to the long-term margin expansion story. Additionally, any clarity on future M&A strategy, content spending discipline, and the integration of AI across production and personalization will shape analyst sentiment. Macroeconomic conditions, including consumer spending trends and currency fluctuations, also warrant attention given Netflix's significant international revenue exposure across Latin America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific.
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NFLX in +2.28% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on July 24, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where NFLX advanced for three days, in of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NFLX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 54 cases where NFLX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
NFLX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NFLX as a result. In of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NFLX turned negative on July 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NFLX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for NFLX entered a downward trend on July 24, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NFLX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.718) is normal, around the industry mean (12.674). P/E Ratio (22.138) is within average values for comparable stocks, (103.257). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.576) is also within normal values, averaging (13.834). NFLX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.017). P/S Ratio (6.266) is also within normal values, averaging (2.953).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NFLX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a provider of online movie rental subscription services
Industry MoviesEntertainment