STHO stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Star Holdings engages in non-ground lease-related businesses, including real estate finance, operating properties, and land and development... Show more
Why Star Holdings (STHO) Stock Is Down -11.6% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Star Holdings (STHO) shares declined roughly 11.6% over the last 30 days, falling from about $8.47 to $7.49 per share.
- The slide extends a broader downtrend, with the stock down approximately 19% over the last quarter.
- Late-September amendments to the company's Safehold term-loan and management agreements raised financing costs and limited additional borrowing, weighing on investor sentiment.
- Star Holdings is a thinly traded micro-cap with a market capitalization near $90 million, a profile that can amplify daily price swings.
- Second-quarter 2026 net income of $41.4 million was driven largely by a $29.3 million non-cash gain on Safehold shares, rather than recurring operating momentum.
- Explore Star Holdings' Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for additional data and context.
- Discover Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven trading strategies are tracking stocks like STHO.
Star Holdings (STHO) Company Overview and Market Position
Star Holdings is a New York-based real estate holding company spun off from iStar Inc. in 2023. Rather than operating as a traditional growth business, the company functions as an asset-monetization vehicle: it seeks to realize value for shareholders by actively managing and selling a legacy portfolio of non-ground-lease assets. That portfolio is centered on the Asbury Park Waterfront and Magnolia Green residential development projects, along with a mix of commercial real estate properties and loans being marketed for sale.
A defining feature of Star Holdings is its sizable equity stake in ground-lease company Safehold Inc. (SAFE) — approximately 13.5 million shares — which is marked to market through earnings each quarter. The company is externally managed by a Safehold subsidiary, and its results and balance sheet are closely tied to Safehold's share price, making STHO's valuation sensitive to factors beyond its own real estate operations.
Star Holdings (STHO) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, STHO shares moved from a closing price of $8.47 on September 28, 2026, to $7.49 at the close on October 27, 2026 — a decline of approximately 11.6%. The move was not a single-day event but a sequence of step-downs, including sharp declines in late September and again in mid-October, followed by stabilization near the $7.45–$7.50 level.
The one-month pullback is part of a longer slide. From roughly $9.28 in late July, the stock has fallen about 19% over the last quarter, reflecting a sustained de-rating rather than an isolated correction. This places the shares toward the lower end of their 52-week range, which spans from $7.01 to $9.94.
What Drove STHO Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The most concrete catalyst during the period was a set of amendments disclosed in early October and executed on September 29, 2026. Star Holdings amended its term-loan credit agreement with Safehold, extending the maturity by one year to March 31, 2029, in exchange for a $2.4 million extension fee. Separately, the company amended its management agreement with a Safehold subsidiary, raising the potential termination fee from $55 million to $62.5 million.
At the same time, Star Holdings voluntarily reduced its margin-loan balance from $94.5 million to $46.5 million using asset-sale proceeds. While this lowered leverage, the broader package increased financing costs, limited future borrowing, and locked in higher termination-related obligations. Market commentary around these filings skewed cautious, and the shares weakened further through mid-October.
Structural factors also contributed. With roughly 12 million shares outstanding and average daily volume frequently below 30,000 shares, STHO trades with limited liquidity, meaning even modest shifts in supply and demand can produce outsized percentage moves.
What Drove STHO Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly decline reflects the stock's ongoing transition as a shrinking asset base rather than a conventional operating business. In August, Star Holdings reported second-quarter 2026 net income of $41.4 million, or $3.43 per share. However, that profit was driven almost entirely by non-recurring items: a $29.3 million non-cash mark-to-market gain on its Safehold shares and $14.4 million of deferred non-cash income from surrendering an asset to a local municipality after a lease expired.
Because a large portion of Star Holdings' value is tied to its Safehold stake, fluctuations in Safehold's price and the associated margin-loan collateral requirements have created recurring volatility in STHO's own results and share price. As asset sales and loan repayments continue, revenue from land development has declined sharply year over year, reinforcing the "melting-ice-cube" dynamics that have kept investors cautious through the quarter.
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STHO Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Several factors are likely to shape STHO's trajectory going forward. The company's next earnings report is expected in early November, and investors will focus on the pace of asset sales and loan repayments, which are the primary sources of cash for debt service and any future shareholder distributions. The mark-to-market value of the Safehold stake remains a key swing factor, since a decline in Safehold's share price could pressure collateral requirements on the margin-loan facility.
Beyond company-specific items, the commercial real estate transaction environment, buyer demand for development land, and financing conditions will influence how quickly Star Holdings can monetize its remaining assets at acceptable prices. Investors should also monitor any changes to the externally managed cost structure, given the elevated termination fees now in place. As always, these are factors to watch rather than a basis for any specific investment decision.
Disclaimer
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Momentum Indicator for STHO turns positive, indicating new upward trend
STHO saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 71 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 53 of the 71 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where STHO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 46 cases where STHO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STHO just turned positive on October 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where STHO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 34 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +6.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STHO advanced for three days, in 128 of 199 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
STHO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for STHO moved below the 200-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STHO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator for STHO entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. STHO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.323) is normal, around the industry mean (2.188). P/E Ratio (6.283) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.152). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (0.683). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.107) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.023) is also within normal values, averaging (5.807).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. STHO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
Industry RealEstateDevelopment