UGP Ultrapar Participacoes SA Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

UGP in -3.06% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on February 21, 2025

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where UGP declined for three days, in of 246 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 56 cases where UGP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

UGP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 14, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 14, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UGP as a result. In of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

UGP moved above its 50-day moving average on February 10, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for UGP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 04, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UGP advanced for three days, in of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 236 cases where UGP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.259) is normal, around the industry mean (9.385). P/E Ratio (12.679) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.032). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (0.907). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.245) is also within normal values, averaging (0.487).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UGP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UGP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.