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CSAN vs UGP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cosan S.A. (CSAN) vs. Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Cosan S.A. (CSAN) and Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) are both Brazilian energy and logistics companies with exposure to fuel distribution and related sectors.
- UGP has delivered stronger year-to-date and one-year returns compared to CSAN amid recent market activity.
- UGP announced a share repurchase program in June 2026, which analysts viewed positively and contributed to sentiment shifts.
- CSAN has faced analyst downgrades and price pressure in recent weeks, reflecting broader challenges in its diversified operations.
- Both stocks operate in the same broad energy and mobility space but differ in segment focus and growth drivers.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between UGP’s momentum and CSAN’s exposure to commodities and logistics.
Introduction
Cosan S.A. (CSAN) and Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) are two Brazilian companies listed on U.S. exchanges that operate in the energy, fuel distribution, and logistics sectors. Investors and traders often compare these stocks when evaluating opportunities in emerging-market energy plays, particularly those tied to Brazil’s commodity cycles, biofuel trends, and domestic fuel demand. This comparison provides objective data on recent performance, business models, and market positioning to help market participants assess relative strengths without forward-looking speculation.
CSAN Overview and Recent Performance
Cosan S.A. (CSAN) is a diversified Brazilian holding company with operations spanning fuel distribution through its Raízen joint venture, natural gas distribution via Compass, lubricants under Moove, rail logistics through Rumo, and agricultural land management via Radar. In recent market activity, the stock has traded in a lower range near $2.88 amid volatility, with year-to-date gains but notable pressure from analyst actions including a downgrade by HSBC. Broader sentiment has been influenced by commodity price fluctuations and operational segment performance, leading to mixed trading patterns over recent weeks.
UGP Overview and Recent Performance
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) focuses on energy and mobility through segments including Ultragaz for liquefied petroleum gas distribution, Ipiranga for fuel retail and service stations, Ultracargo for liquid bulk storage, and Hidrovias for waterway logistics. The stock has shown resilience and gains in recent periods, with year-to-date returns exceeding 70% in available data. Positive developments such as the June 2026 approval of an 18-million-share repurchase program and analyst upgrades, including to Buy ratings from Bank of America, supported sentiment during recent market activity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies share exposure to Brazil’s fuel and energy markets but differ in business models: Cosan S.A. (CSAN) maintains broader diversification across ethanol production, rail logistics, and natural gas, while Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) emphasizes downstream fuel retail, LPG distribution, and storage infrastructure. Recent momentum has favored UGP following its share buyback announcement and analyst support, contrasting with CSAN’s more pressured price action and downgrade activity. Risk factors include commodity volatility for both, though CSAN’s logistics segments add exposure to agricultural cycles. Market sentiment has shown relative strength for UGP amid buyback-related developments, while CSAN’s positioning reflects challenges in its multi-segment portfolio. Sector exposure remains aligned with Brazilian energy demand, creating trade-offs between UGP’s focused retail and logistics operations versus CSAN’s wider commodity-linked activities.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, recent catalysts including the buyback program, and relative positioning in performance data, Tickeron’s AI would currently indicate a probabilistic preference toward Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) over Cosan S.A. (CSAN). This assessment draws from UGP’s stronger recent returns and positive analyst revisions compared to CSAN’s more variable segment performance and downward rating actions, though outcomes remain subject to ongoing market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CSAN is a Hold and UGP is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CSAN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileUGP’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CSAN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UGP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CSAN’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UGP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CSAN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UGP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CSAN (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +9.13% price change this week, while UGP (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +9.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +1.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +37.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
CSAN is expected to report earnings on Nov 13, 2026.
UGP is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+1.75% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| CSAN | UGP | CSAN / UGP | |
| Capitalization | 2.76B | 7.09B | 39% |
| EBITDA | 4.44B | 9.16B | 48% |
| Gain YTD | -30.380 | 78.780 | -39% |
| P/E Ratio | 5.97 | 10.65 | 56% |
| Revenue | 39.8B | 146B | 27% |
| Total Cash | 21.7B | 7.16B | 303% |
| Total Debt | 64.9B | 21.1B | 308% |
UGP | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 13 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 44 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| CSAN | UGP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 66% | 24 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 81% | 12 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 78% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| NULG | 114.63 | 0.47 | +0.41% |
| Nuveen ESG Large-Cap Growth ETF | |||
| RB | 47.19 | 0.09 | +0.19% |
| Proshares Russell 2000 Dynamic BufferETF | |||
| VFMV | 145.78 | 0.16 | +0.11% |
| Vanguard US Minimum Volatility ETF | |||
| EAOR | 38.03 | N/A | N/A |
| iShares ESG Aware 60/40 Bal Allc ETF | |||
| IBID | 25.81 | N/A | N/A |
| iShares iBonds Oct 2027 Term Tips ETF | |||
CSAN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CSAN has been loosely correlated with UGP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CSAN jumps, then UGP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CSAN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSAN | 100% | +8.27% | ||
| UGP - CSAN | 58% Loosely correlated | +2.90% | ||
| DK - CSAN | 22% Poorly correlated | +11.60% | ||
| WKC - CSAN | 21% Poorly correlated | +0.08% | ||
| VVV - CSAN | 21% Poorly correlated | +0.44% | ||
| IEP - CSAN | 20% Poorly correlated | +2.11% | ||
More | ||||
UGP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UGP has been loosely correlated with CSAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UGP jumps, then CSAN could also see price increases.