UGP Ultrapar Participacoes SA Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

UGP sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory

On September 30, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for UGP moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 49 of the 58 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 84%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a +1.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UGP advanced for three days, in 216 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

UGP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 243 of 303 cases where UGP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for UGP moved out of overbought territory on September 24, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 66%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 24, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UGP as a result. In 53 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UGP turned negative on September 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UGP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.196) is normal, around the industry mean (46.814). P/E Ratio (11.291) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.488). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.150) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.053) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.276) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 37, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UGP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.