ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Momentum Indicator for ZTO turns negative, indicating new downward trend

ZTO saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 17, 2023. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 96 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 96 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ZTO turned negative on November 17, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

ZTO moved below its 50-day moving average on November 16, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for ZTO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 17, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ZTO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for ZTO's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 56 cases where ZTO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ZTO advanced for three days, in of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ZTO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ZTO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ZTO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.243) is normal, around the industry mean (17.349). P/E Ratio (15.106) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.905). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.596) is also within normal values, averaging (11.069). ZTO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.043). ZTO's P/S Ratio (3.557) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.200).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.