APLD stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Applied Digital Corp is a U... Show more
Why Applied Digital (APLD) Stock Is Down -29.5% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Applied Digital shares fell roughly 29.5% over the last 30 days, declining from about $26.25 to $18.51.
- The drop extended a broader sell-off across AI data center and neocloud stocks as investors reassessed debt-funded infrastructure buildouts.
- Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue rose 322% year over year to $341.9 million and beat estimates, but a $221 million GAAP net loss and roughly $6.4 billion in debt kept sentiment cautious.
- The stock touched a one-year low in late October, prompting disclosed insider buying by the company's co-founders.
- Analyst views remain wide-ranging, with recent price targets spanning from $35 to $70 following coverage updates.
- Get more detail on Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast for APLD on Tickeron's dedicated pages.
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Applied Digital (APLD) Company Overview and Market Position
Applied Digital Corporation designs, develops, owns, and operates large-scale, purpose-built data centers engineered for high-performance computing (HPC) workloads, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, and other accelerated-compute applications. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, the company markets these facilities as "AI Factories" and has positioned itself as a builder and operator of next-generation digital infrastructure for hyperscalers and AI tenants.
The business operates across three main areas: HPC Hosting, which is its core AI data center segment; Data Center Hosting, which provides energized space to bitcoin mining customers across roughly 286 megawatts in North Dakota; and its cloud services business, ChronoScale, a separately traded public company in which Applied Digital retains an approximately 96% stake. Investors follow the stock closely because of the company's multi-gigawatt buildout pipeline and its long-term, take-or-pay lease agreements with investment-grade hyperscale customers, which management reports as roughly $36 billion in contracted lease revenue across five campuses.
Applied Digital (APLD) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, APLD declined approximately 29.5%, moving from a closing price near $26.25 in late September to about $18.51. The move was not a straight line: shares staged brief rebounds but repeatedly met selling pressure, ultimately sliding to a one-year low in late October.
The last quarter tells a similar story of sustained weakness. Measured from the late-July level near $26, the stock has fallen roughly 30%, reflecting a multi-month downtrend rather than a single-event shock. This persistent underperformance stands in contrast to the company's strong reported revenue growth, underscoring how concerns about leverage, dilution, and the pace of converting contracted capacity into operating facilities have outweighed top-line momentum in recent months.
What Drove APLD Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
Several factors converged to pressure APLD over the past month. First, a sector-wide rotation out of debt-financed AI infrastructure names weighed on the stock. Short sellers built significant positions across AI data center and neocloud companies, with Applied Digital frequently cited alongside peers such as CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, and Core Scientific as names facing elevated short interest.
Second, the company's October 7 earnings report produced a mixed reaction. Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue surged 322% year over year to $341.9 million and beat analyst estimates, and adjusted EBITDA improved to $64.4 million. However, a GAAP net loss of $221 million and a debt load of approximately $6.4 billion reinforced investor concerns about financing costs, even though the majority of that debt does not mature until fiscal 2031 or later.
Third, analyst actions sent conflicting signals. Needham lowered its price target to $70 from $83, citing regulatory exposure and more difficult financing, while Citizens JMP reiterated a $60 target, Morgan Stanley raised its target to $41, and Roth Capital initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $35 target. The widening gap between bearish sentiment and bullish targets contributed to volatility. Late in the period, commentary from Elon Musk warning that the neocloud sector could face consolidation and failures added further pressure, even as the company's co-founders disclosed share purchases near the lows.
What Drove APLD Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly decline reflects a broader reassessment of capital-intensive AI infrastructure businesses. Over roughly three months, investors shifted from rewarding contracted capacity growth toward scrutinizing how quickly that capacity converts to positive free cash flow. Applied Digital's progress has been substantial operationally, with the company reporting over 600 megawatts expected to enter service over the next 12 months and announcing additional partnerships, including a joint venture with Soluna to develop a wind-powered AI data center in Texas.
Yet persistent GAAP losses, heavy stock-based compensation, and the separation of the cloud business into ChronoScale have kept the equity story complex. Rising financing costs and questions about execution risk have overshadowed the company's contracted revenue backlog, driving the sustained downtrend that defined the quarter.
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APLD Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor Applied Digital's progress in converting its contracted pipeline into operating capacity, as management has guided for more than 600 megawatts to come online over the next 12 months. The pace of expansion lease signings, financing terms, and any changes to interest-rate expectations will be key, given the company's significant debt burden. Upcoming quarterly results will reveal whether adjusted EBITDA and net operating income continue to scale alongside revenue.
Sector-level sentiment also matters. Neocloud and AI data center valuations remain sensitive to commentary on AI capital spending, short interest dynamics, and regulatory developments. The performance of ChronoScale and the status of the Soluna joint venture are additional factors to track. As always, these are informational considerations rather than investment recommendations, and outcomes will depend on execution, financing conditions, and broader market appetite for capital-intensive AI infrastructure.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
APLD's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for APLD moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 23 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 58 of 66 cases where APLD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Following a +18.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APLD advanced for three days, in 251 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
APLD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on APLD as a result. In 78 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for APLD turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for APLD entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.274) is normal, around the industry mean (2.898). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.492). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.224) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.977) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APLD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. APLD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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