Wilmington Trust’s chief economist believes the market rally’s foundation is on shaky ground.
With the S&P 500 seeing its best June since 1955, Luke Tilley warns that investors are getting excessively optimistic on U.S.-China trade talks and Federal Reserve policy.
Barclays believes a market “melt-up” could be on the horizon if three things materialize in the near future: A trade truce, Federal Reserve rate cuts and the economic slowdown only being a soft patch.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 256 points at the open, led by Caterpillar and Exxon Mobil.The Dow was also within 1% of its record high, while the Nasdaq remained 1.3%.
Two of the world’s most influential economic leaders have warned that there are troubling developments arising from increased trade barriers and tariffs.
Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the global trade dispute between the U.S. and China as well as a threatened dispute with Europe and other industrial nations could cause headwinds for all and could get worse.
China will not allow the U.S. to interfere in its legislative process and economic policies, but it seems to be showing a readiness to keep its sales in American markets on a steep and steady downward path.
According to data released June 6 by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Chinese goods exports to the U.S. in the first four months of this year declined 12.8% from the same period of 2018, driving the trade surplus down 10%.
mortgage applications moved higher last week, led by a jump in requests for refinancing, as home borrowing costs fell to their lowest levels in nearly 17 months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.
The Association's seasonally adjusted index on loan requests to buy a home and to refinance one rose 1.5% to 417.8 in the week ended May 31.
Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate “conforming” mortgages or loans whose balances are $484,350 or less decreased to 4.23%, which was the lowest since January 2018.A week ago, they averaged 4.33%.
U.S.job growth slowed sharply in May and wages rose less than expected, raising fears that a loss of momentum in economic activity could be spreading to the labor market, which could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.
A dovish Federal Reserve can use tools such as rate cuts to lessen the damage of America’s tariff skirmishes with China and Mexico, but it is either limited in its effectiveness or in its motivations, two economists told CNBC on Thursday.
There’s still a chance that the U.S. and China could reach a trade deal by the end of this year, but that won’t be enough to cause investors to cheer, according to an investment expert from BlackRock.
Isabelle Mateos y Lago, deputy head of BlackRock’s Official Institutions Group, said Friday that any trade deal between Washington and Beijing will likely be “narrow.” That means the deal won’t likely resolve all the tensions between the two countries, she explained.
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, addressing a key market concern, said Thursday the move of near-term bond yields above their longer-duration counterparts is only one consideration when determining what the economy will look like in the future.
The inverted yield curve is not “an oracle,” he said during a question-and-answer session with CNBC’s Steve Liesman.
U.S.-China tariffs, that have been both implemented and proposed, could cut global economic output by 0.5% in 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Wednesday.
Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, said in a briefing note for G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors that taxing all trade between the world’s two largest economies would cause some $455 billion in gross domestic product to evaporate.This would be a loss larger than South Africa’s economy, it said.
The International Monetary Fund trimmed its forecasts for economic growth in China, and said the trade war with the U.S. is tilting the balance of risks to the downside.
New orders for U.S.-made goods fell in April and shipments dropped by the most in two years, indicating continued weakness in manufacturing activity that could undercut the broader economy.
President Donald Trump promised the U.K. a “phenomenal trade deal” Tuesday, on the second day of his state visit to Britain.
His comments revealed little detail but added to previous assurances from the U.S. president as Britain slowly edges toward an exit from the EU.
More than a year after U.S. President Donald Trump fired the first tariff salvo that eventually led to a trade war with China, the debate about who actually bears the burden of those elevated levies has not found a definite conclusion.
Goldman Sachs has revised up its expectations of an escalation to U.S. trade wars with China and Mexico.
There is now a 60% chance of the U.S. placing a new 10% tariff on the final $300 billion of Chinese imports, a note from the Wall Street investment bank said Monday.This is an increase from a previous estimate of 40%
The fate of the updated trade deal between the U.S., Mexico and Canada was thrown into question after U.S. President Donald Trump announced Thursday that his country plans to impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from June 10.
Raising tariffs on all Chinese goods that enter American borders will likely hurt U.S. economic growth, which has already shown signs of slowing in recent months, according to Japanese financial firm Nomura.
The stock market and economic outlook in the United States is “deteriorating,” according to an analysis from one of Wall Street’s top investment banks.
Renewed trade tensions and a slump in economic data — ranging from falling durable goods and capital spending to a downshift in the services sector — has put U.S. profits and economic growth at risk, Morgan Stanley warned Tuesday.
With both the U.S. and China avoiding any severe economic downturn so far, there’s little incentive for the two countries to strike a trade deal quickly, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.