Major ETFs see 10-day moving averages cross bearishly below 50-day moving averages
The selling that has hit the market in the last few weeks has taken a toll on a number of index ETFs. Many of them have fallen below their 50-day moving averages. In the case of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), they have just had their 10-day moving averages cross bearishly below their 50-day moving averages.
Looking at each of the charts, it is the first time since October that these ETFs have experienced a bearish crossover in the moving averages and when it happened last fall, it was an ominous sign. The SPY was trading around $275 when the crossover occurred and would eventually fall below $235. The QQQ was trading around $170 when the bearish crossover occurred and it would eventually fall below $145.
In each case, it wouldn’t be until mid-January that the 10-day moving average would cross bullishly back above the 50-day. In the case of the SPY, the ETF was trading just above $260 at the time and it would eventually move up to $295. In the case of the QQQ, it was trading around $162.50 when the 10-day moved back above the 50-day and it would eventually rise above $190 before pulling back again.
SPY in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on January 20, 2026
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 34 cases where SPY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
SPY moved above its 50-day moving average on January 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 366 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 451 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 72 cases where SPY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on January 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on January 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
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