Major ETFs see 10-day moving averages cross bearishly below 50-day moving averages
The selling that has hit the market in the last few weeks has taken a toll on a number of index ETFs. Many of them have fallen below their 50-day moving averages. In the case of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), they have just had their 10-day moving averages cross bearishly below their 50-day moving averages.
Looking at each of the charts, it is the first time since October that these ETFs have experienced a bearish crossover in the moving averages and when it happened last fall, it was an ominous sign. The SPY was trading around $275 when the crossover occurred and would eventually fall below $235. The QQQ was trading around $170 when the bearish crossover occurred and it would eventually fall below $145.
In each case, it wouldn’t be until mid-January that the 10-day moving average would cross bullishly back above the 50-day. In the case of the SPY, the ETF was trading just above $260 at the time and it would eventually move up to $295. In the case of the QQQ, it was trading around $162.50 when the 10-day moved back above the 50-day and it would eventually rise above $190 before pulling back again.
SPY sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for SPY moved above the 200-day moving average on June 27, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on June 26, 2025. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 365 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 432 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPY moved out of overbought territory on July 11, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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