GET DAILY SIGNALSAemetis (AMTX) Returns to Profitability in Q3 2026 on 49% Revenue Growth
Key Takeaways
- Aemetis reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $88.2 million, up 49% from $59.2 million in the prior-year quarter.
- The company swung to net income of $5.2 million, or $0.07 per basic share, from a net loss of $23.7 million a year earlier.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $24.8 million, improving by $29.8 million versus a negative $5.0 million in the third quarter of 2025.
- Section 45Z clean-fuel production tax credits contributed $24.7 million in revenue, including an $11 million cumulative true-up following a U.S. Department of Energy model update.
- Dairy renewable natural gas (RNG) sales volume grew 39% year over year to 158,200 MMBtu, while two new dairy digesters began operating in October.
- Cash declined to $3.4 million at quarter-end as the company invested $20.2 million in capital projects.
Why These Results Matter
This quarterly report represents a notable shift for AMTX, a company focused on renewable natural gas and renewable fuels that has spent years investing in its dairy RNG and California ethanol operations while posting losses. The third quarter of 2026 brought the first positive net income, largely thanks to Section 45Z production tax credits recognized after the U.S. Department of Energy revised its carbon-intensity model in September. From what I see, these results provide early signs that years of capital spending are starting to generate recurring revenue and cash flow. The numbers also highlight how policy-driven credits and regulatory changes can reshape a company’s financial path.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
Revenue came in at $88.2 million, a 49% increase from $59.2 million in the same period last year and ahead of consensus. This included $24.7 million from Section 45Z credits, with $20.1 million tied to dairy RNG and $4.6 million to California ethanol, plus roughly $11 million in true-up adjustments for the first half of the year after the model update.
Net income reached $5.2 million, or $0.07 per basic share, compared with a $23.7 million loss in the third quarter of 2025. Operating income was $20.9 million, up $29.4 million year over year. Adjusted EBITDA improved to $24.8 million from negative $5.0 million. Dairy RNG volume rose 39% to 158,200 MMBtu. Cash stood at $3.4 million, down from $4.9 million at the end of 2025 after $20.2 million in capital outlays. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment around AMTX reflects both operational progress and ongoing share-price swings. The stock closed at $1.25 on the report date and has traded in a 52-week range of about $1.11 to $3.80, down roughly 27% over the past three months. The results were seen as a positive inflection point, with both revenue and earnings per share beating expectations that had projected a net loss. At the same time, investors are weighing the thin cash balance and interest costs against the growing contribution from clean-fuel credits. The central question remains whether this credit-supported profitability can hold and translate into consistent operating cash flow as new projects come online.
Looking Ahead: Key Factors to Watch
Going forward, attention will focus on whether AMTX can maintain credit-driven profits and turn them into stronger cash generation. A key catalyst is the mechanical vapor recompression system at the Keyes ethanol plant, expected to add about $32 million in annual cash flow once in service, with the biggest effects likely appearing in the second half of 2027.
The third corn oil separation unit should start by December and roughly double corn oil output. Additional Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways are advancing through California Air Resources Board approval, which could boost credit revenue per unit of RNG. Liquidity and financing moves, including potential long-term funding for the Keyes plant and RNG digesters or a possible minority stake offering in the India subsidiary, will also matter. Biodiesel export approvals to Europe and rising blending targets in India represent further demand tailwinds. These elements will determine if the third-quarter inflection marks the beginning of a sustained improvement.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
One tool I turn to when analyzing companies like this is Tickeron’s AI Screener. It helps me quickly filter stocks by industry, technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics so I can compare AMTX against peers and spot broader opportunities in the renewable energy space. This kind of structured scanning has become a regular part of how I evaluate ideas before digging deeper into the numbers.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
AMTX's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AMTX moved out of oversold territory on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 42 of the 49 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 55 of 70 cases where AMTX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AMTX as a result. In 70 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMTX just turned positive on November 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMTX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +50.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMTX advanced for three days, in 187 of 232 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
AMTX moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AMTX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMTX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
AMTX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AMTX entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AMTX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-0.363) is normal, around the industry mean (2.365). P/E Ratio (-1.884) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.546). AMTX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (19.780) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.555) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMTX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a producer of renewable chemicals and fuels using patented microbes and processes
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
Advertisement