GET DAILY SIGNALSAmerican Express (AXP) Reports Record Q3 Revenue and Raises 2026 EPS Outlook
Key Takeaways
- American Express reported record third-quarter 2026 revenue of roughly $20.1 billion, up 9% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share of $4.68 that came in ahead of consensus estimates.
- Management raised full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $18.30–$18.60 (reported) and $17.60–$17.90 (adjusted), while reaffirming its 10% revenue-growth target.
- Premium card spending remains the core growth engine: net card fees rose 16% (17% currency-adjusted), U.S. consumer spending climbed 9.4%, and the company acquired 3.1 million new cards in the quarter.
- Credit quality held at best-in-class levels, with the delinquency rate stable at 1.2%–1.3% for 15 consecutive quarters and a net write-off rate of 1.8%.
- AXP shares have moved modestly higher over the trailing 30 days—up roughly 4%—as investors weigh solid results against rising expenses and intense premium-card competition.
How AXP Has Performed in Recent Weeks
American Express shares have held up within a comparatively narrow trading range in recent weeks, rising roughly 4% over the trailing 30 days following its October earnings report. The stock moved slightly lower in the immediate aftermath of the results, reflecting a market reaction to a top-line figure that was essentially in line with estimates even as profitability beat expectations and guidance was raised. The broader narrative around the stock continues to center on resilient spending among higher-income consumers, disciplined credit performance, and steady fee income growth—offset in part by elevated operating expenses and aggressive competition in the premium card market. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
American Express (AXP) Business Overview and Competitive Position
American Express operates a distinctive, integrated payments model often described as a closed-loop network, meaning it issues cards, runs its own network, and frequently maintains direct relationships with both cardmembers and merchants. This structure lets the company earn discount revenue from merchants, annual card fees, and interest on revolving balances—a mix that differs from network operators such as Visa and Mastercard, which primarily facilitate transactions without taking direct credit exposure.
The company's strategy is anchored in a premium, high-credit-quality customer base that skews toward affluent consumers, travelers, and small and mid-sized businesses. Major growth drivers include continued expansion of fee-based products such as Platinum and Gold cards, growth in net interest income as balances rise, and international acceptance expansion, which now reaches more than 190 million merchant locations globally. Investors follow the stock closely as a barometer of discretionary spending among higher-income households and as a gauge of consumer credit health.
Recent Developments Driving AXP
The most significant recent catalyst was American Express's third-quarter 2026 report, released in late October. Revenue net of interest expense rose 9% year over year to about $20.06 billion, while adjusted EPS climbed 13% to $4.68, beating consensus estimates. Reported EPS of $5.42 reflected a gain from the sale of the company's stake in Global Business Travel Group, partially offset by a restructuring charge tied to the elimination of roughly 5% of global positions.
Management raised its full-year EPS outlook to $18.30–$18.60 on a reported basis and $17.60–$17.90 on an adjusted basis, while reaffirming a 10% revenue-growth target. Net card fees, the fastest-growing revenue line, rose 16% on a reported basis and 17% currency-adjusted, supported by the U.S. Consumer Platinum refresh. Billed business increased 8% to $454 billion, with travel and entertainment spending up 10% and airline spending up 13%.
Credit trends remained a source of strength, with a stable delinquency rate and a net write-off rate of 1.8%. The company also returned capital to shareholders through $1.6 billion in share repurchases and $600 million in dividends. At the same time, expenses grew 9%, and competition in the premium space from issuers such as Capital One and JPMorgan Chase remains intense. Additional developments included the mid-quarter completion of the Amazon co-brand portfolio sale and a new partnership with Airbnb that added more than one million listings to the company's travel platform.
2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, the key factors to monitor include the durability of premium card spending, the trajectory of net card fee growth as the company laps the Platinum refresh, and the pace of expense and marketing investment. Credit performance, net interest income growth, and the company's ability to sustain double-digit international spending will also be closely watched. Competitive dynamics in the premium card segment, regulatory remediation efforts, and the timing and magnitude of share repurchases round out the list of considerations. American Express has reaffirmed its full-year 10% revenue-growth target and raised its EPS outlook, but investors will continue to weigh these commitments against broader consumer and macroeconomic conditions. From what I see, these elements will shape how the stock performs in the quarters ahead.
Exploring Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots
In my own research process, I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to be a practical way to review how algorithmic strategies are positioned on names like AXP. The platform highlights top-performing bots across various timeframes and approaches, which helps me cross-check ideas without replacing my own analysis. It’s one resource I turn to when evaluating how data-driven tools are approaching the broader market.
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Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.
AXP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026
AXP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AXP as a result. In 48 of 74 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AXP just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where AXP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The 10-day moving average for AXP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +3.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AXP advanced for three days, in 204 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 174 of 282 cases where AXP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AXP moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 26 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 64 cases where AXP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AXP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
AXP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AXP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.323) is normal, around the industry mean (3.902). P/E Ratio (19.442) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.401). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.232) is also within normal values, averaging (3.918). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.189) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.824) is also within normal values, averaging (5.901).
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