GET DAILY SIGNALSAN vs ABG vs GPI: How the Three Largest Auto Retailers Are Handling a Tough Market
Key Takeaways
- All three are large U.S. automotive retailers navigating the same macro backdrop: softer new- and used-vehicle volumes, normalizing gross profit per vehicle, and affordability-driven pressure on consumers.
- AN posted its seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth, supported by record after-sales gross profit and a rapidly scaling captive finance arm, while ABG and GPI missed consensus in their most recent reports.
- ABG completed its multi-year Tekion dealer-management-system (DMS) rollout — a potential efficiency catalyst — but carries elevated leverage and continues to work through margin pressure.
- GPI offers geographic diversification through its sizable U.K. operations and pays a dividend, yet faces a margin squeeze and paused share repurchases while it deleverages following the Hennessy acquisition.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: AN — based on trend consistency, recurring-revenue stability, and relative momentum, the AI currently favors AutoNation among the three.
Setting the Stage for These Three Retailers
Asbury Automotive Group, AutoNation, and Group 1 Automotive rank among the largest publicly traded franchised auto retailers in the United States. Their market positioning, growth drivers, and recent stock performance show meaningful differences even though they operate in the same environment of softening vehicle demand, easing gross profit per unit, and a shifting profit mix toward parts, service, and finance and insurance. From what I see, this relative comparison can help investors understand momentum, balance-sheet considerations, and near-term catalysts without relying on forecasts.
Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) Overview and Recent Performance
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG), headquartered near Atlanta, runs roughly 155 to 170 new-vehicle dealerships along with collision centers, and more than 70% of its new-vehicle revenue comes from luxury and import brands. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry. In recent weeks ABG finished its multi-year Tekion DMS rollout across all stores, a step that produced a sharp single-session gain even though its latest quarterly adjusted EPS of $6.16 missed consensus. Revenue fell about 8% year over year, and same-store SG&A expense stayed elevated. The stock has lagged the broader market year to date, reflecting the balance between the efficiency potential of the new technology and net leverage near 3.5x, which management targets below 3.0x by mid-2027.
AutoNation (AN) Overview and Recent Performance
AutoNation, Inc. (AN), based in Fort Lauderdale, is the second-largest U.S. auto retailer with more than 245 dealerships and over 50 collision centers, concentrated mostly in Sun Belt markets. It reports across Domestic, Import, Premium Luxury, and AutoNation Finance segments. In its most recent quarter AN delivered adjusted EPS of $5.11, up roughly 2% year over year and slightly above consensus, marking a seventh straight quarter of growth. After-sales gross profit reached a ninth consecutive record at $617 million, and the AutoNation Finance portfolio grew to about $2.9 billion with ROE near 24%. Share repurchases of roughly $620 million year to date have reduced the share count, supporting per-share results amid softer vehicle economics.
Group 1 Automotive (GPI) Overview and Recent Performance
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI), headquartered in Houston, operates more than 250 dealerships across the U.S. and the U.K., with the U.K. contributing about a quarter of revenue. In recent weeks GPI reported revenue down about 6.7% year over year and adjusted EPS that missed consensus, which sent the stock modestly lower. U.S. same-store new- and used-vehicle units declined, while aftersales set records in customer-pay revenue and repair orders. The company closed its acquisition of Hennessy, adding roughly $1.7 billion in annualized revenue and a high luxury mix, but pro forma leverage rose to about 4x, leading management to pause share repurchases until deleveraging advances. GPI also pays a quarterly dividend, setting it apart from the other two.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Although all three compete in the same industry, their profiles differ. AN is the largest and most diversified by revenue, with a captive finance arm that is emerging as a distinct growth and earnings contributor. GPI brings meaningful U.K. exposure and the only dividend in the group, yet it also carries the highest pro forma leverage and has paused buybacks. ABG leans toward luxury and import brands and has a technology-driven efficiency catalyst, but leverage and margin progress remain key areas of focus. All three trade at low single-digit to high single-digit price-to-earnings ratios, reflecting the sector’s cyclical nature. Risk factors include affordability constraints, inventory normalization, and credit performance in auto lending.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward AN among the three. The company shows the most consistent earnings trend with seven straight quarters of adjusted EPS growth, reinforced by record after-sales results and a fast-scaling finance business that adds recurring, higher-margin revenue. In contrast, ABG and GPI each missed consensus and face more visible balance-sheet or margin pressures in the near term. This view is probabilistic rather than certain: AN’s per-share growth is partly buyback-driven, and sector-wide headwinds could alter relative positioning if vehicle demand or credit trends weaken further.
Exploring Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots
When comparing names like ABG, AN, and GPI, I sometimes review Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots list for additional data-driven context. These bots cover a range of strategies and timeframes, and the platform highlights those best suited to current conditions. Checking the section can provide a useful complement to fundamental analysis when evaluating relative performance across the auto retail space.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ABG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
ABG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 40 of 52 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ABG as a result. In 71 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ABG just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ABG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +12.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ABG advanced for three days, in 218 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ABG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
ABG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ABG entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 51 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.906) is normal, around the industry mean (1.454). P/E Ratio (7.356) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.731). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.449) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.207) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ABG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ABG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
an operator of an automotive retailers
Industry AutomotiveAftermarket
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