GET DAILY SIGNALSArcelorMittal (MT) Q3 Sales Rise 5% as Adjusted EPS Tops Estimates
Key Takeaways
- ArcelorMittal reported third-quarter 2026 sales of $16.5 billion, up 5% year over year, though steel shipments slipped to 13.0 million tonnes.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.15, well above the sell-side consensus estimate of $0.84.
- EBITDA rose 34% year over year to $2.02 billion, topping the roughly $1.97 billion consensus.
- Reported results swung to a $391 million net loss, driven by $852 million in impairment charges and $293 million in exceptional items tied to the idling of its Kryvyi Rih operations in Ukraine.
- EBITDA per tonne climbed to $155, up $44 from a year earlier, reflecting the company's ongoing portfolio and cost improvements.
Why ArcelorMittal's Results Matter
As the world's largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal (MT) serves as a barometer for global industrial demand, spanning construction, automotive, and infrastructure markets. Its third-quarter 2026 report lands at a pivotal moment, as European trade policy shifts — including a new tariff-rate quota regime and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism — begin reshaping the region's steel landscape. In my view, investors are watching closely to see whether these structural changes translate into sustainably higher margins and capacity utilization. The results also test management's confidence that cost pressures from elevated European energy prices can be passed through to customers.
Breaking Down the Q3 Numbers
ArcelorMittal reported third-quarter 2026 sales of $16.47 billion, a 5% increase from $15.66 billion a year earlier but down 1.8% sequentially on lower steel shipments of 13.0 million tonnes. Reported net results swung to a $391 million loss, or $0.52 per share, from net income of $377 million a year ago, as the company booked $852 million in impairment charges and $293 million in exceptional items related to the idling of its Kryvyi Rih operations in Ukraine.
Stripping out those charges, adjusted net income rose to $868 million, or $1.15 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.84. EBITDA climbed 34% year over year to $2.02 billion, ahead of the roughly $1.97 billion analyst consensus, while EBITDA per tonne reached $155 — up $44 from the prior-year period. Underlying operating performance was broadly stable versus the second quarter despite higher European energy and carbon costs, which have not yet been fully offset by rising steel prices. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
How the Market Reacted
The quarter's headline net loss was overshadowed by a clear beat on adjusted profitability, with EBITDA and adjusted EPS both landing ahead of consensus. Investors have focused on the structural margin improvement, as EBITDA per tonne reached its highest level in recent memory and management pointed to further gains as European contract prices reset. From what I see, sentiment was also supported by commentary that the new European trade framework is already lifting flat-product shipments against normal seasonal patterns, even as the full benefit of lower imports is not expected to materialize until 2027. Offsetting these positives, the sizable Ukraine-related write-downs and a temporary rise in net debt to $10.3 billion served as reminders of ongoing geopolitical and balance-sheet risks.
Looking Ahead: What to Watch
Management guided to double-digit year-over-year growth in European flat-product shipments for the fourth quarter, with overall second-half shipments expected to exceed first-half levels. A key catalyst ahead is the reset of annual contracts: more than 25% of ArcelorMittal's European flat volumes are under calendar-year contracts, largely with automotive customers, and those repricing into 2027 should help pass through higher energy costs. I’m watching this closely as it could signal sustained margin expansion.
On the cost side, investors should monitor European energy and carbon prices, which compressed margins in the third quarter and are only gradually being reflected in realized steel prices. The company reiterated its 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion and maintained an estimate of roughly $1.8 billion in potential EBITDA contributions from strategic growth projects.
Other watch items include the ramp-up of the Liberia iron-ore operation toward its 20-million-tonne design capacity in the fourth quarter, the restart of European blast furnaces, and progress on electric arc furnace projects that are expected to add approximately 3.9 million tonnes of capacity by 2029. Continued policy support in Europe will also shape the earnings outlook into 2027.
Exploring Opportunities with AI Tools
In my research process, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly identify how stocks like ArcelorMittal (MT) stack up against peers in the materials sector. The tool’s ability to filter by fundamentals, technicals, and AI signals saves significant time when evaluating earnings beats or sector trends. It’s become a go-to resource for spotting potential opportunities in industrial names.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MT sees its Stochastic Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
On October 29, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for MT moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 35 of the 48 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MT just turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where MT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +1.32% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MT advanced for three days, in 222 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
MT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MT as a result. In 49 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for MT entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 2 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.858) is normal, around the industry mean (2.170). P/E Ratio (26.256) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.421). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.890) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
an operator of mines, manufactures and distributes carbon steel and stainless steel products
Industry Steel
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