GET DAILY SIGNALSAspen Aerogels (ASPN) Delivers Q3 2026 Beat with +17% Revenue Growth
Key Takeaways
- Aspen Aerogels reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $85.18 million, up 17% year over year and 71% sequentially, topping the high end of its $65 million–$80 million guidance range.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $19.8 million, well above the $7 million–$15 million outlook and more than double the level generated on similar revenue in late 2023.
- GAAP net loss was $10.42 million, or $0.13 per share, versus a $6.33 million loss a year earlier, reflecting $15.1 million of East Providence incident-related costs.
- Adjusted earnings of $0.11 per share beat the consensus estimate for a $0.09 loss, while revenue exceeded the $72.28 million consensus.
- Fourth quarter 2026 guidance of $60 million–$75 million in revenue and $5 million–$13 million in adjusted EBITDA represents a sequential step-down driven by lumpy subsea project timing.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Aspen Aerogels, a maker of aerogel insulation and thermal-barrier materials for the energy industrial and electric vehicle markets, came into this report after a challenging period. An April 2026 explosion at its East Providence, Rhode Island facility had disrupted production, and the first half of the year showed softer revenue along with tighter margins. This quarter provided an important check on whether the restructured, capital-light model could turn higher volumes into real profitability. The numbers demonstrated clear operating leverage, even with one-time incident costs still affecting the reported results.
Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, ASPN posted revenue of $85.18 million, up from $73.02 million a year ago. That figure topped both the $72.28 million consensus and the company’s own $65 million–$80 million range. Energy industrial revenue came in at $39.9 million, while thermal barrier revenue reached $45.3 million, including $4.9 million of deferred revenue from a General Motors settlement.
On a GAAP basis, the net loss was $10.42 million, or $0.13 per share, compared with a $6.33 million loss, or $0.08 per share, in the prior-year period. The difference largely stemmed from roughly $15.1 million in East Providence incident charges and a $4.6 million write-down of property, plant, and equipment. Adjusted earnings, excluding those items, reached $0.11 per share and beat the consensus forecast of a $0.09 loss. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compared with peers in the industry.
Adjusted EBITDA hit $19.8 million, above the $7 million–$15 million target. Adjusted gross margin improved to 41% from 17% in the second quarter, while GAAP gross margin rose to 24%. Management guided for fourth-quarter revenue of $60 million–$75 million and adjusted EBITDA of $5 million–$13 million, while reaffirming full-year 2026 revenue of $233 million–$248 million.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The market reacted positively to the revenue beat and the evidence of operating leverage. Adjusted earnings of $0.11 per share against a consensus loss of $0.09, together with revenue running 17.8% above estimates, suggested that cost restructuring is starting to pay off at higher volumes. Investors also noted progress on diversification, including record European thermal barrier revenue of $8 million, early battery energy storage sales, and a first data center infrastructure order. The response was measured, however, because of the conservative fourth-quarter outlook that points to a sequential revenue drop as subsea projects roll off, and because incident-related costs continue to pressure reported margins and cash flow.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, the step-down implied by fourth-quarter guidance deserves attention. Revenue is expected between $60 million and $75 million, below the third-quarter level, mainly because subsea project revenue is uneven and General Motors production assumptions remain cautious. Whether adjusted gross margin can stay near the 40% range at lower volumes will test how durable the improved cost structure really is.
The restart of the East Providence facility is another key catalyst. Management expects staged restoration to finish in the first half of 2027, and the timing of insurance reimbursements—about $20 million in claims still outstanding—will affect near-term cash flow.
Diversification efforts also warrant watching. European thermal barrier revenue is targeted to roughly double to $50 million–$60 million in 2027, and early traction in battery energy storage and data center infrastructure could open new channels. Balancing these growth signals against incident costs and cautious near-term guidance will shape sentiment in coming quarters.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When I analyze earnings like these, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI tools to cross-check patterns and compare performance across the sector. The AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals platform has been especially useful for spotting how similar companies have reacted to comparable beats and guidance. It helps me stay objective and see beyond the headline numbers without adding extra time to the process.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ASPN sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
ASPN saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 14, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 39 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ASPN moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 26 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASPN as a result. In 73 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
ASPN moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASPN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASPN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASPN entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +6.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASPN advanced for three days, in 217 of 264 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
ASPN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.225) is normal, around the industry mean (2.450). P/E Ratio (-3.395) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.964). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.017) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ASPN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ASPN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a manufacturer of reinforced, nanoporous aerogel insulation products
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
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