GET DAILY SIGNALSAspen Aerogels (ASPN): What to Expect from Third-Quarter 2026 Results
Key Takeaways
- Aspen Aerogels is expected to report its third-quarter 2026 results in early November, with consensus estimates pointing to a net loss of about $0.09 per share on revenue near $71 million.
- Company guidance calls for stronger sequential growth, with third-quarter revenue of $65 million to $80 million and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $7 million to $15 million.
- The quarter follows a messy first half, including an April explosion at the company's East Providence plant that pressured margins and delayed a full production recovery.
- Investors are watching whether the energy industrial segment rebounds on subsea and LNG (liquefied natural gas) projects, and whether electric vehicle (EV) demand stabilizes.
- A one-time settlement with General Motors continues to flow through results, providing a modest revenue tailwind into 2027.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Aspen Aerogels operates at the intersection of energy infrastructure and electric vehicles. Its aerogel insulation products serve refinery, subsea, and LNG customers, while its PyroThin thermal barriers help automakers manage battery safety. After a difficult 2025, the company entered 2026 with a first-quarter revenue decline and an April operational disruption at its East Providence, Rhode Island facility. Third-quarter results matter because they will show whether management's recovery plan is working, whether margins can improve as volumes rebuild, and whether demand from key customers like General Motors is stabilizing. For investors, this report is a key test of the company's credibility after several quarters of downward revisions.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street is looking for a third-quarter net loss of roughly $0.09 per share on revenue of about $71 million, according to consensus estimates. That compares with a net loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $73.02 million in the same quarter a year earlier. The company's own guidance, issued in August, is more upbeat: management expects third-quarter revenue between $65 million and $80 million, a net loss of $6 million to $9 million, a net loss per share of $0.07 to $0.11, and adjusted EBITDA between $7 million and $15 million.
That outlook implies a meaningful sequential rebound from the second quarter, when revenue came in at $49.8 million and adjusted EBITDA was negative $6.6 million. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry. Analysts will be watching gross margin closely, since the April incident added roughly $5 million of incremental costs in the second quarter, and the company does not expect the East Providence plant to reach full capacity until the first half of 2027. Historically, ASPN has beaten consensus earnings per share estimates in five of its last eight quarters, but guidance revisions and plant disruption have made recent quarters unusually difficult to model.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment around ASPN heading into earnings is cautiously optimistic but guarded. The stock rallied sharply in premarket trading after the second-quarter report in August, helped by a revenue beat and stronger-than-expected third-quarter guidance. Since then, however, the shares have faced pressure as investors weighed the lingering costs of the East Providence disruption and the delayed return to full production. Key risks heading into this report include any shortfall in the energy industrial segment, further EV demand softness, and higher-than-expected incident-related costs. The direction of the stock after the print will likely hinge less on the headline loss and more on whether revenue lands within or above management's guided range and whether adjusted EBITDA confirms the expected swing toward profitability.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Beyond the third-quarter headline numbers, investors should focus on several forward-looking signals. First is the pace of the East Providence recovery. Management expects full production capacity to be restored in the first half of 2027, so commentary on the restart timeline and insurance claims will shape margin expectations for coming quarters.
Second, watch the energy industrial segment, which management expects to grow roughly 20% in 2026. Subsea project awards and LNG-related activity are the main drivers, while refinery and petrochemical turnaround work has lagged expectations. A pickup in those areas would support the recovery narrative.
Third, EV demand remains a wildcard. The company has expanded its European customer base to seven original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including a new design award from Jaguar Land Rover, and raised its 2026 European thermal barrier outlook. Stabilization in General Motors production volumes and continued European momentum are important to watch.
Finally, keep an eye on cash and balance-sheet health, given ongoing working-capital needs as the company builds inventory ahead of production ramps. These factors, rather than the quarterly loss itself, are likely to determine the direction of ASPN shares in the months ahead.
AI Tools in My Research Process
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when preparing for earnings like this one. It helps me quickly filter peers, review technical patterns, and compare fundamentals across the sector, which adds useful context beyond the headline numbers. The tool has become a regular part of how I evaluate recovery stories like Aspen Aerogels.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ASPN's Stochastic Oscillator is remaining in overbought zone for 3 days
The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASPN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
ASPN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ASPN entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ASPN as a result. In 71 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ASPN just turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where ASPN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 39 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
ASPN moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASPN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +6.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASPN advanced for three days, in 217 of 264 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASPN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.117) is normal, around the industry mean (2.284). P/E Ratio (-3.230) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.017) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ASPN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a manufacturer of reinforced, nanoporous aerogel insulation products
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
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