Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY) Drops -16% Over 30 Days: What’s Behind the Slide

Key Takeaways

• BDRY declined roughly 16% over the trailing 30 days, falling from about $14.55 to $12.19 per share.
• The move was driven by weakening Capesize and Panamax freight rates, which together account for roughly 90% of the fund's benchmark weighting.
• A sharp October selloff in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), tied to subdued Chinese iron ore demand and ample vessel supply, pressured the freight futures BDRY holds.
• Over the trailing quarter, BDRY is down about 9% after rallying above $16.50 in early September before reversing sharply.
• Supramax rates proved more resilient than the larger vessel classes, providing only a partial offset to the broader decline.
• As a futures-based commodities pool, BDRY carries a 3.50% expense ratio and is structurally exposed to contango-related roll costs.

Understanding the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY)

The BDRY seeks to provide exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities. It is structured as a commodities pool that invests substantially all of its assets in a benchmark portfolio of forward freight agreements (FFAs) — cash-settled futures contracts on the cost of shipping dry bulk cargo.

The portfolio centers on a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures on three Baltic Exchange reference indexes: the Capesize 5TC Index (about 50% weight), the Panamax 5TC Index (about 40%), and the Supramax 58 TC Index (about 10%). Capesize vessels transport roughly 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal; Panamax vessels carry 60,000–70,000 tons of coal and grain; and Supramax vessels handle smaller, more diversified cargoes. The weighting scheme is rebalanced annually, making the fund a passive, unlevered, long-only exposure to dry bulk shipping rates. The fund holds roughly a dozen futures positions and has a gross expense ratio of 3.50%, with assets under management (AUM) in the range of $33 million to $43 million. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the fund compares to others in the industry.

Recent Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter

Over the trailing 30 days, BDRY fell approximately 16%, from a closing level near $14.55 to about $12.19. The decline was not a single-session shock but a steady, trend-driven slide that accelerated through mid-October as freight futures repriced lower.

The trailing quarter tells a more volatile story. BDRY began the period near $13.40, climbed to an intra-quarter peak above $16.50 in early September, and then reversed sharply, finishing the three-month stretch down roughly 9%. In other words, the fund surrendered its late-summer gains and then some, with the bulk of the damage concentrated in the most recent month.

What Drove the 30-Day Move

The primary driver was a broad deterioration in dry bulk freight rates. The BDI, which aggregates Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax charter rates, fell sharply through the first half of October, at one point extending a ten-session losing streak to its lowest level since late June. Because BDRY's two largest exposures are Capesize and Panamax futures, the weakness in the larger vessel segments translated directly into ETF performance.

Capesize rates were the biggest drag, pressured by subdued iron ore demand and cautious buying from Chinese steel mills, alongside ample vessel availability. Panamax rates weakened in tandem, weighed down by soft coal and grain cargo enquiries. Supramax rates held up comparatively well, but their roughly 10% portfolio weight was too small to offset losses in the larger segments.

The fund's futures-based structure amplified the move. When the freight futures curve sits in contango — where longer-dated contracts trade above nearer-dated ones — the routine process of rolling positions can erode returns, adding a structural headwind to an already declining market.

Drivers Behind the Quarterly Performance

The three-month trend reflects a rally-and-reversal cycle rather than a straight line. BDRY strengthened through July and August as freight rates firmed, reaching its high point in early September. That advance gave way to a broad repricing as market participants reassessed near-term cargo demand and vessel supply.

Structurally, dry bulk shipping remains closely tied to Chinese industrial activity, which influences iron ore and coal volumes, and to global grain trade, which supports Panamax demand. The late-quarter pullback suggests that the freight market's earlier optimism gave way to softer fundamentals, with rising vessel availability and cautious end-demand weighing on rates. Contango roll costs and the fund's 3.50% expense ratio compounded the drag over the period, underscoring why BDRY is better suited to tactical, shorter-horizon positioning than buy-and-hold exposure.

Using Tickeron AI Tools for ETF Analysis

In my own research on cyclical exposures like dry bulk shipping, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI-powered platforms to scan for comparable opportunities and validate technical setups. The AI Screener stands out for its ability to filter by momentum, volatility, and industry characteristics, which helps put BDRY’s recent moves in broader context without replacing core fundamental analysis.

Disclaimer

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Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk|Expert

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.

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