GET DAILY SIGNALSCellebrite DI (CLBT) Falls 14% After Q3 Beat as Growth Moderates
Key Takeaways
- Cellebrite DI (CLBT) delivered a third-quarter beat, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) rising 20% year over year to $528.5 million and total revenue up 18% to $149 million.
- Despite topping estimates, shares fell about 14% on the earnings session as management's guidance signaled decelerating ARR growth and a roughly flat fourth-quarter revenue outlook.
- The stock trades near its 52-week low and sits roughly 42% below its late-2025 peak, weighed down by an August guidance cut and CEO transition earlier in the year.
- Profitability strengthened, with adjusted EBITDA climbing 42% to $53.6 million and the company raising its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook.
- Wall Street retains a "Strong Buy" consensus with an average 12-month price target near $15, implying notable upside from current levels.
- For additional detail, explore Cellebrite's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for a deeper look at valuation and expectations.
- Investors seeking data-driven trading ideas can also review Trending AI Robots for automated strategies across thousands of tickers.
Current Market Snapshot
Cellebrite DI (CLBT) closed near $11.53 in mid-November, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $2.9 billion. The shares have been volatile over the past month, trading within a range from about $10.80 to nearly $13.65, yet finishing that span only modestly higher on a net basis. Over the longer term, the stock remains well below its 52-week high of approximately $19.98 and not far above its 52-week low of $9.58, set in August. With a trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 46 and a forward multiple closer to 18, the market continues to assign a premium valuation to the company's growth narrative even as near-term expansion expectations moderate.
Cellebrite DI (CLBT) Business Overview and Competitive Position
Cellebrite DI Ltd. is an Israel-headquartered provider of AI-powered digital investigative and intelligence software. Its platform helps law enforcement, federal, defense, and intelligence agencies collect, review, analyze, and manage digital evidence across the investigative lifecycle, supporting cases ranging from counterterrorism and border security to cybercrime and financial investigations. Public-sector customers account for the large majority of revenue.
The product portfolio includes Inseyets for digital forensics, Pathfinder for analytics, Guardian for evidence management, and the newer Genesis AI platform, alongside Corellium for mobile security research. A subscription-heavy model, with subscription revenue representing about 91% of the total, supports recurring ARR growth and healthy gross margins near 86%. Cellebrite's entrenched relationships with government customers, deep mobile-forensics expertise, and expanding AI offerings form the core of its competitive position. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Recent Developments Driving CLBT
The dominant catalyst for CLBT was its third-quarter 2026 report. The company beat consensus on adjusted EPS ($0.17 versus $0.16) and revenue ($149 million versus roughly $145.9 million), while adjusted EBITDA rose 42%. Yet shares reversed sharply lower because guidance pointed to slower momentum: full-year ARR was reaffirmed at $550 million to $560 million, implying growth of roughly 14% to 16% versus the 20% reported in the quarter, and fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $145 million to $150 million was essentially flat sequentially. Management also cited softer-than-planned Corellium ARR, an ongoing CFIUS review of that acquisition, and uncertainty around the timing of larger cloud and AI deals.
That reaction echoed August, when the stock tumbled roughly 29% in a single session after a revenue shortfall, reduced guidance, and a leadership change. The broader setup, including the early traction of Genesis at $2 million in ARR and a raised full-year EBITDA outlook, has supported an overall "Strong Buy" analyst consensus, though firms such as JPMorgan have trimmed price targets.
2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether Cellebrite can sustain double-digit ARR growth while navigating a moderation implied by its guidance. Key items to monitor include the pace of U.S. federal adoption, the ramp of the Genesis AI platform and its planned on-premise version, and the resolution of the CFIUS review tied to Corellium. Demand trends across international markets, particularly EMEA and Asia-Pacific, and the timing of larger cloud and AI deals will also shape results. Profitability remains a bright spot, with management raising its adjusted EBITDA target and targeting a roughly 30% free-cash-flow margin for the year. The balance sheet is well-capitalized with substantial cash, but execution on deal timing and growth durability will be central to whether the stock can recover from its depressed valuation. From what I see, this execution risk is worth watching closely in the quarters ahead.
Exploring Tickeron AI Trading Bots
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to test automated strategies around names like CLBT. The platform provides a range of bots with different approaches and timeframes, allowing users to see how systematic signals align with fundamental views. It serves as a practical way to explore data-driven ideas without replacing core analysis.
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Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.
Aroon Indicator for CLBT shows an upward move is likely
CLBT's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on November 13, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 214 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 183 of the 214 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for CLBT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +2.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLBT advanced for three days, in 221 of 287 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
CLBT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CLBT moved out of overbought territory on November 10, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 45 of 61 cases where CLBT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CLBT as a result. In 68 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CLBT turned negative on November 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 45 of the 55 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
CLBT moved below its 50-day moving average on November 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CLBT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CLBT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.815) is normal, around the industry mean (16.188). P/E Ratio (51.875) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.064). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.648). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.427) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.583) is also within normal values, averaging (103.301).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CLBT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
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