GET DAILY SIGNALSCleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Jumps +16% After Strong Q3 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Cleveland-Cliffs shares surged roughly 16% after reporting third-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted EBITDA of $612 million marking its strongest quarter in three years.
- Despite the post-earnings jump, the stock's 30-day move stands near 9%, keeping it below the double-digit threshold on a trailing monthly basis.
- Q3 adjusted earnings of $0.28 per share beat the consensus estimate of $0.24, while revenue reached $5.6 billion.
- Management guided to approximately $715 million of adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2026 and said 2027 adjusted EBITDA could exceed $4 billion.
- Trade policy, automotive demand, and contract negotiations with the United Steelworkers remain the most important swing factors for the shares.
Recent Trading Activity in CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs shares have shown notable volatility in recent weeks, breaking higher after the company reported third-quarter results on October 19, 2026. The stock advanced sharply on elevated volume following the earnings release, then pulled back modestly in the following session as investors digested the numbers. On a trailing 30-day basis, the shares have gained roughly 9% from the prior month's closing level, reflecting a recovery from a late-September dip rather than a sustained, uninterrupted rally.
Broader sentiment around North American steel producers has improved as domestic pricing strengthened and import levels remained well below historical norms. Within this context, CLF has drawn renewed investor attention because of its heavy exposure to the automotive end market and its vertically integrated cost structure. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
CLF's Business Overview and Competitive Position
Cleveland-Cliffs is a vertically integrated North American steel producer and the largest flat-rolled steel supplier to the automotive industry in the region. Headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, the company employs approximately 25,000 people across operations in the United States and Canada. Its business spans iron ore mining, pellet production, direct-reduced iron (hot-briquetted iron), scrap processing, primary steelmaking, and downstream finishing, stamping, tooling, and tubing.
The company transformed from a primarily iron ore miner into a fully integrated steelmaker through a series of acquisitions, including AK Steel, the U.S. assets of ArcelorMittal, and the Canadian producer Stelco. This integration gives Cleveland-Cliffs direct control over raw materials and supports its position in automotive-grade sheet products. It competes with domestic rivals such as Nucor (NUE), U.S. Steel (X), and Steel Dynamics (STLD), as well as international producers subject to U.S. trade measures.
Q3 Results and Key Catalysts for CLF
The dominant catalyst in the last 30 days was the company's third-quarter 2026 report. Cleveland-Cliffs posted revenue of $5.6 billion, GAAP net income of $165 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $612 million, more than double the $286 million recorded in the prior quarter. Steel shipments reached 4.2 million net tons, up from 4.0 million, with automotive shipments at their highest level since the third quarter of 2023. The average net selling price rose $53 per ton sequentially to $1,177 per ton.
Management's forward commentary was a key driver of the post-earnings rally. The company guided to roughly $715 million of adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter and indicated that its 2027 contract renewal cycle could generate more than $1 billion of year-over-year EBITDA improvement. Executives said they expect 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion under prevailing conditions, supported by a favorable trade environment and strong customer demand for contracted steel volumes.
Alongside the positive results, the company announced the indefinite idling of galvanizing lines at its Stelco subsidiary in Hamilton, Ontario, citing an oversupplied Canadian galvanized steel market and insufficient government action on imports. Cleveland-Cliffs said Stelco is now profitable overall and that total production tonnage will be maintained, with roughly 2,000 Canadian jobs preserved. Separately, labor negotiations with the United Steelworkers have extended past their original deadline, though management characterized the talks as professional and productive.
2026 Outlook and Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to shape Cleveland-Cliffs' trajectory. The company's fourth-quarter guidance implies a meaningful sequential step-up in adjusted EBITDA, and confirmation of that target will be closely watched. The 2027 contract renewal cycle is another critical variable, since annual fixed-price and index-linked agreements cover the largest portion of the company's non-automotive steel volume.
Macro and policy developments also matter. The durability of Section 232 steel tariffs and broader trade measures influences both domestic pricing and import competition. Automotive production trends directly affect demand for Cleveland-Cliffs' core flat-rolled products, while the outcome of USW labor negotiations carries operational and cost implications. Finally, the status of the Canadian galvanized steel dispute and the progression of capital projects such as the $1 billion Middletown Works modernization will provide further signals on execution and free cash flow. Investors should monitor earnings updates, steel price indexes, and trade policy announcements rather than relying on any single metric.
Exploring AI Tools for Market Analysis
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CLF in -3.66% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 16, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CLF declined for three days, in 255 of 306 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CLF moved out of overbought territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 54 of 65 cases where CLF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
CLF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CLF as a result. In 58 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CLF just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CLF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
CLF moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CLF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The 50-day moving average for CLF moved above the 200-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +7.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLF advanced for three days, in 260 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 178 of 216 cases where CLF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 24 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.436) is normal, around the industry mean (2.229). P/E Ratio (-8.868) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.463). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.059) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.346) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CLF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CLF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a miner of iron ore
Industry Steel
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