GET DAILY SIGNALSFerrari (RACE) Consensus Target at $450 Signals Potential +12% Upside
Key Takeaways
- The central target of $450 is the rounded arithmetic mean of roughly a dozen current analyst price targets, which average about $451.
- Against a latest price near $403, reaching $450 would require a gain of roughly 12%, a modest move by historical standards for the stock.
- Verified targets span a wide range, from roughly $399 to about $512, reflecting genuine disagreement about Ferrari's valuation and growth trajectory.
- The strongest supports are a multiyear order book, exceptional pricing power, and a broad product push including Ferrari's first electric model, the Luce.
- The biggest risks are a premium valuation, U.S. tariffs on European vehicles, residual-value pressure on hybrid models, and execution uncertainty around electrification.
- For deeper coverage, explore Ferrari's Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings pages.
- You can also monitor evolving buy and sell signals across the market by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
Ferrari N.V. (RACE), the Italian luxury sports-car maker, is covered by a broad group of sell-side analysts. Aggregated data from S&P Global points to roughly 12 current targets with an arithmetic mean near $451, which rounds to the $450 central target used here. The range is unusually wide, spanning from about $399 to about $512, and the consensus rating sits at Buy. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Recent individual actions illustrate the spread. Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy and raised its target to $472 in late September 2026, while Morgan Stanley, which upgraded the stock to Overweight in June 2026, holds a target near $450. J.P. Morgan maintained a Buy with a lower target around $426, and Barclays kept a Buy rating at a target near $453. The low end of the range sits only marginally above, or in some cases below, the current share price, a reminder that not every analyst sees meaningful upside.
The dispersion is telling. Bulls emphasize scarcity, personalization, and a loyal ultra-high-net-worth customer base; more cautious voices stress that the shares still trade at a sharp premium to ordinary automakers and that growth is now expected to be slower than in past cycles.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
Ferrari shares closed near $403 in early November 2026, well off their earlier 2025 highs above $500 but comfortably above their 52-week low near $312. To reach $450, the stock would need to climb roughly 12% — a modest move, but one that first requires clearing the recent resistance zone in the mid-$430s, which marks the stock's 52-week high.
The path depends less on volume and more on valuation and sentiment. Ferrari's trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of roughly 37 times is nearly double the global auto-industry average, so the shares can move sharply when the market re-rates either the growth outlook or the premium multiple. Recent quarterly results have been solid: second-quarter 2026 revenue rose about 8% with higher net profit, and management lifted full-year guidance, supported by an order book extending toward the end of 2027.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Demand visibility: An order book stretching into 2027 reduces near-term demand uncertainty and supports pricing discipline.
- Pricing power and personalization: Rising customization lifts average selling prices without requiring higher unit volume, protecting margins.
- Product momentum: The launch of the Luce, Ferrari's first fully electric car, plus special-series models such as the F80, expands the addressable customer base.
- Shareholder returns: A multi-year buyback program and a roughly 21% dividend increase proposed for 2026 signal management confidence in cash generation.
- Wealth concentration: Analyst commentary points to continued wealth creation among ultra-high-net-worth clients, Ferrari's core demographic.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
- Valuation compression: At a significant premium to the broader auto sector, any softening in sentiment could pressure the multiple even if earnings hold up.
- Tariffs and trade policy: Additional U.S. tariffs on imported European vehicles and ongoing currency volatility remain direct margin risks.
- Residual-value pressure: Declines in used values for hybrid models such as the 296 and SF90 have weighed on sentiment and could recur.
- Electrification execution: Uncertainty over how the Luce is received, and how quickly production ramps, adds medium-term risk.
- Slower growth algorithm: Guidance presented at the October 2025 capital markets day implied a more moderate growth path than investors had previously assumed.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
The stock has been consolidating in a broad range. Nearby support sits in the $390–$400 zone, with a deeper floor around $360–$370 where the shares stabilized earlier in 2026. On the upside, the mid-$430s marks the 52-week high and is the first meaningful resistance level; a sustained move through that area would open the door toward the $450 central target and, beyond it, the psychological $500 level where the stock traded in late 2025.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual analysts differ in their assumptions. The most immediate catalyst is the third-quarter 2026 earnings report, scheduled for early November 2026. Investors should watch revenue growth, margin trends, commentary on the Luce order book, any revisions to full-year guidance, and updates on tariffs and foreign-exchange exposure, as well as any further analyst target changes.
Final Assessment
The $450 central target for Ferrari (RACE) reflects the rounded average of roughly a dozen current analyst price targets and implies about a 12% advance from the latest price near $403. Support comes from a deep order book, exceptional pricing power, disciplined capital returns, and the early stages of an electrification push. The principal obstacles are a premium valuation, tariff and currency exposure, residual-value concerns, and execution risk around the Luce. The wide target range — roughly $399 to $512 — underscores that analysts genuinely disagree about the durability of Ferrari's multiple. Reaching $450 is a realistic but not guaranteed scenario, and the upcoming quarterly report and any guidance revisions are likely to be the clearest near-term signals.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
RACE in +2.55% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on October 29, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where RACE advanced for three days, in 205 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where RACE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RACE as a result. In 50 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RACE just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where RACE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
RACE moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
RACE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for RACE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RACE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator for RACE entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RACE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: RACE's P/B Ratio (19.344) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.986). P/E Ratio (43.399) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.717). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.414) is also within normal values, averaging (2.450). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.143) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.547) is also within normal values, averaging (2.648).
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an operator of an automobile company, which engages in the designing, engineering, producing and selling of sports cars
Industry MotorVehicles
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