GET DAILY SIGNALSGFL Environmental (GFL) Reports +27% Revenue Increase in Third Quarter
Key Takeaways
- GFL Environmental reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of C$2.16 billion, up roughly 27% year over year and ahead of the consensus estimate of about C$2.11 billion.
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 26.8% to C$678.7 million, driven largely by acquisitions and solid organic growth.
- Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.26, missing the roughly $0.28 consensus estimate, while the company posted a net loss from continuing operations of C$28.0 million.
- Management raised full-year 2026 guidance again, lifting its adjusted free cash flow target to approximately $1.02 billion for the third time this year.
- A Special Committee of independent directors is evaluating unsolicited take-private proposals, with a November 9, 2026 deadline for updated bids, making the process a central focus for investors.
Putting the Quarter in Context
GFL Environmental ranks as the fourth-largest diversified environmental services company in North America, handling solid waste management across Canada and 19 U.S. states. This quarter’s results arrive at an interesting time, as the firm continues an active acquisition program led by the SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. transaction while its board reviews unsolicited take-private offers. The numbers provide a useful snapshot of pricing power, margin trends, and cash flow generation against a backdrop of uneven industrial and construction activity. After adjusted EPS missed estimates in the first half of 2026, this release also served as a check on whether top-line momentum would carry through to the bottom line.
Quarterly Results Breakdown
Revenue reached C$2.16 billion in the third quarter, a 27.2% year-over-year gain that topped the consensus mark of roughly C$2.11 billion. Organic growth measured 7.4%, supported by effective pricing even as industrial, construction, and special waste volumes remained softer.
Adjusted EBITDA climbed 26.8% to C$678.7 million, and adjusted net income from continuing operations totaled C$100.1 million. On a reported basis, the company recorded a net loss from continuing operations of C$28.0 million versus net income of C$90.4 million a year earlier, translating to a GAAP loss per share of C$0.09. Adjusted EPS of $0.26 came in below the approximately $0.28 consensus, marking the third straight quarter of missing that benchmark. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare performance against industry peers.
Adjusted free cash flow rose to C$272.5 million, which prompted management to raise its full-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow target to about $1.02 billion and to increase revenue guidance in light of completed acquisitions.
Market Response and Current Sentiment
Investor reaction has been measured, with the ongoing take-private review overshadowing the headline numbers. Shares moved modestly higher after the release, buoyed by the revenue and cash flow strength despite the EPS shortfall. Analysts have pointed out that the November 9 deadline for revised bids now represents the main catalyst, shifting attention away from operating results for the moment. Strong revenue growth, the upgraded free cash flow outlook, and the unresolved strategic process have left sentiment balanced between operational progress and questions about future ownership.
What to Watch Going Forward
The immediate focus remains the November 9, 2026 cutoff for updated take-private proposals. Any outcome could alter the company’s capital structure and direction, so current shareholders will want to stay close to developments.
Outside the strategic review, attention should turn to whether pricing power and organic growth hold up into 2027. Volumes in industrial, construction, and special waste categories are still soft, so any rebound there would help sustain momentum.
Margin and cash flow trends also deserve monitoring. With the full-year adjusted free cash flow target now at roughly $1.02 billion, delivery will hinge on integrating acquisitions such as SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. and maintaining disciplined spending.
Finally, the path of adjusted EPS bears watching. While revenue and EBITDA have expanded nicely, per-share results have trailed consensus for three consecutive quarters. Narrowing that gap through improved operating leverage and cost control will matter for investor confidence no matter how the strategic process ends.
Integrating AI Tools Into My Research
When reviewing earnings like these, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly scan for comparable companies and verify technical and fundamental signals. The platform lets me apply custom filters across thousands of stocks and ETFs, helping surface relevant patterns without manual effort. This keeps my analysis grounded in data while complementing traditional earnings review.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for GFL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
GFL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 62 of the 90 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GFL just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where GFL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
GFL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.49% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GFL advanced for three days, in 174 of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 137 of 211 cases where GFL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GFL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
GFL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.666) is normal, around the industry mean (47.600). P/E Ratio (-95.745) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.720). GFL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.015) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.988) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GFL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GFL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a company, which engages in the provision of ecological solutions
Industry EnvironmentalServices
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