GET DAILY SIGNALSGoosehead Insurance (GSHD) Posts +17% Revenue Growth Amid Restatement
Key Takeaways
- Goosehead reported preliminary third-quarter 2026 total revenue of $108.8 million to $110.8 million, roughly 17% growth at the midpoint versus the prior-year period.
- Core Revenue rose 13% year over year to $94.7 million, while total written premiums grew 11% to $1.31 billion.
- New business commissions climbed 21% year over year, led by an enterprise sales channel still growing at more than 50%.
- The company disclosed it will restate financial statements for fiscal 2023, 2024, and 2025 plus the first half of 2026, delaying its full earnings release and finalized EPS (earnings per share) figures.
- Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed, with total revenue growth of 12% to 19% and total written premium growth of 12% to 20%.
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Why This Quarter Matters
Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) runs one of the largest independent personal-lines insurance agencies in the country, operating through corporate, franchise, and enterprise channels. Its results draw attention because they show whether the firm can continue adding policies in force, generating new business, and growing core revenue even as personal-lines pricing stabilizes. This particular report carried extra significance: alongside decent top-line expansion, leadership flagged a significant accounting restatement tied to agent compensation costs and franchise fees. For investors, it provides both a snapshot of operating trends and a note that prior-period numbers are under revision.
The Preliminary Numbers
Goosehead issued preliminary third-quarter 2026 results on November 9, 2026. Total revenue landed in the $108.8 million to $110.8 million range, reflecting about 17% growth at the midpoint compared with the $92.9 million to $94.9 million posted a year earlier. Core Revenue, the non-GAAP metric the company emphasizes, advanced 13% to $94.7 million.
Operating metrics held up well. Total written premiums increased 11% to $1.31 billion, policies in force rose 14% to roughly 2.1 million, and new business commissions jumped 21%. Management highlighted that the enterprise sales team posted its eighth straight quarter of more than 50% growth. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
GAAP EPS was not finalized in the initial release. Goosehead indicated it will restate results for fiscal 2023, 2024, and 2025, plus the first two quarters of 2026, after receiving an SEC comment letter. The adjustments center on deferring some agent compensation costs and reclassifying certain franchise fees as revenue instead of expense offsets. Leadership stressed that cash flows, Core Revenue, and the fundamental business economics remain unchanged.
Market Reaction So Far
Investor sentiment had already been measured heading into the report, with GSHD under pressure year to date and the consensus rating sitting near Hold with an average price target around $60.50. The preliminary figures showed solid top-line momentum that could lend support, yet the multi-year restatement announcement adds a layer of uncertainty. Investors often approach restatements and delayed filings with caution, even when management describes the shifts as non-cash and economically neutral. Near-term price movement may therefore depend more on the speed of the restated filings than on the revenue beat itself.
Guidance and Items to Watch
Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed, with total revenue growth expected in the 12% to 19% range and total written premium growth of 12% to 20%. Management also indicated that full-year new business commission growth should reach its strongest pace since 2021, aided by strategic partnerships now covering more than 5 million potential clients.
A few areas stand out for monitoring. Completion of the restatement and release of revised 2023–2026 financials will matter, as shares may stay volatile until audited figures are available. The enterprise channel’s continued expansion above 50% remains a core driver, but its margin contribution as the business grows will be worth tracking. Management also noted a near-term drag on renewal revenue from softer industry pricing that lets agents move clients to better rates, though this should support retention over time. Producer productivity, franchise performance, and progress on digital and AI tools that could reduce costs while broadening reach are additional points to follow.
Using AI Tools in My Research
When reviewing names like this, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter peers by technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics. It helps surface comparable setups and monitor how market conditions are shifting without manual effort, giving a clearer picture of where GSHD stands relative to the broader group.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GSHD's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GSHD turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where GSHD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GSHD as a result. In 66 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
GSHD moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GSHD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +8.90% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GSHD advanced for three days, in 228 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 138 of 201 cases where GSHD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GSHD moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 81%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GSHD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
GSHD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 23 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GSHD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: GSHD's P/B Ratio (-11.764) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (2.681). P/E Ratio (38.846) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.012). GSHD's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (76.820) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.322). GSHD's Dividend Yield (0.426) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.039). P/S Ratio (5.184) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GSHD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of insurance agency services
Industry InsuranceBrokersServices
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