GET DAILY SIGNALSGranite Construction (GVA) Reports Strong Q3 Growth Despite One-Time Charges
Key Takeaways
- Granite Construction reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.77 billion, up 23.2% year over year and above the consensus estimate of roughly $1.7 billion.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.81, about 14.5% above the consensus estimate of $3.33 and up from $2.70 in the prior-year quarter.
- GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) diluted EPS fell to $0.07 from $1.98 a year earlier, weighed down by non-operating charges tied to the settlement of convertible notes.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose 32% to $283.5 million, while operating margin expanded to 12.7% from 10%.
- The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion and introduced long-term targets through 2029.
- Committed and Awarded Projects (CAP), a key measure of future revenue, reached a record $7.5 billion at quarter end.
- For more on this ticker, explore Granite Construction's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecasts on additional pages.
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Why This Quarter Matters
Granite Construction stands as one of the largest diversified civil contractors and construction materials producers in the United States, with operations spanning its Construction and Materials segments. The third-quarter results provide an important window into demand in public transportation, federal, rail, and mission-critical infrastructure markets. I pay close attention to CAP growth, margin trends, and cash conversion because these indicators point to the durability of future earnings. This quarter carried extra significance due to the settlement of convertible notes, which created a notable gap between GAAP results and the adjusted figures analysts typically emphasize.
Quarterly Results in Detail
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Granite Construction posted revenue of $1.77 billion, marking a 23.2% rise from $1.43 billion in the same period last year and exceeding the consensus estimate of about $1.7 billion. Adjusted EPS reached $3.81, beating the consensus of $3.33 and improving from $2.70 a year earlier. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry. Adjusted EBITDA increased 32% to $283.5 million, topping the roughly $265.8 million expected, while the operating margin widened to 12.7% from 10%.
On a GAAP basis, net income attributable to Granite Construction was approximately $3 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, compared with $102.9 million, or $1.98 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter. The drop stemmed from roughly $162 million in non-operating charges related to the convertible notes settlement rather than any operational shortfall. The company lifted its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $5.4 billion and $5.5 billion, with a midpoint of $5.45 billion that sits modestly above earlier expectations.
Market Reaction
Shares of Granite Construction held roughly steady right after the release, trading near $111.71, as investors balanced the solid operational performance against the GAAP earnings decline from the one-time charges. Over the previous three months the stock had fallen about 7.7%, though it remained up roughly 8.6% over the trailing twelve months. The muted initial reaction suggests the adjusted beat and record CAP were largely priced in, with focus now turning to the new 2029 targets and the staying power of margin gains.
Looking Ahead
Granite Construction heads into 2027 with a record CAP of $7.5 billion, which offers meaningful revenue visibility. Management pointed to federal work, expected to make up about 15% of construction segment revenue this year, and mission-critical infrastructure linked to data centers and AI build-out as important growth drivers. The 2029 targets include organic revenue compound annual growth of 10% to 12%, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, operating cash flow near 13% of revenue, and free cash flow around 10% of revenue.
Several areas warrant monitoring. Free cash flow margin slipped to 12.9% from 18% a year earlier, so cash conversion stays in focus. The materials segment continues to deal with energy costs and weather pressures, and aggregate pricing trends will be watched. The company has also flagged ongoing acquisition activity, which brings integration and balance-sheet considerations. The broader backdrop for publicly funded highway and bridge work remains supportive, but execution on federal and mission-critical projects will determine whether the long-term goals are met.
Using AI Tools in Research
In my own analysis, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly compare infrastructure names and identify sector peers with similar technical or fundamental profiles. It streamlines the process of spotting potential opportunities without replacing deeper fundamental work. This approach has helped me cross-check ideas like the one presented here and refine watchlists more efficiently.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GVA's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for GVA moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 30 of 49 cases where GVA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GVA as a result. In 58 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GVA just turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where GVA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GVA advanced for three days, in 215 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
GVA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
GVA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GVA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator for GVA entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 10 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.591) is normal, around the industry mean (15.756). P/E Ratio (-29.542) is within average values for comparable stocks, (169.208). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.109) is also within normal values, averaging (3.522). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.183) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.134) is also within normal values, averaging (2.960).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 10 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GVA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a contractor and producer of construction materials
Industry EngineeringConstruction
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