GraniteShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF (BABX) +43% in 30 Days: Recovery in Focus
Key Takeaways
- BABX surged approximately 43% over the past 30 days, driven by a sharp recovery in Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) ADR shares from deeply oversold levels.
- Over the last quarter, BABX declined roughly 26%, reflecting the leveraged impact of BABA's prolonged selloff through May and June before the recent rebound took hold.
- The primary catalyst was a powerful relief rally in Chinese technology equities, fueled by improving AI sentiment, easing interest rate expectations, and news that Alibaba's Qwen AI model received Chinese regulatory approval for integration into Apple Intelligence features in China.
- As a 2x daily leveraged single-stock ETF, BABX amplifies both gains and losses in BABA, making it highly sensitive to swings in the underlying ADR and unsuitable for buy-and-hold investors.
- Risks remain elevated: Alibaba faces ongoing Pentagon blacklist designation, negative free cash flow from heavy AI infrastructure spending, and unresolved shareholder litigation.
GraniteShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF (BABX) Overview and Portfolio Exposure
The GraniteShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF (BABX) is an actively managed leveraged exchange-traded fund that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 2 times (200%) the daily percentage change in the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of Alibaba Group Holding Limited, which trades on the NYSE under the ticker BABA. The fund was launched in December 2022 and carries a net expense ratio of 1.15%.
Unlike diversified ETFs that hold baskets of securities, BABX is a single-stock leveraged product. It achieves its 2x daily objective primarily through swap agreements and options on BABA, supplemented by direct ownership of the underlying ADR. The fund is non-diversified and is designed exclusively for sophisticated traders who understand the effects of daily compounding, leverage decay, and volatility drag. The fund's assets under management (AUM) stood at approximately $74.5 million as of late June 2026. When reviewing exposure details, I checked comparable single-stock products using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge relative volatility profiles.
Because BABX's entire exposure is linked to a single company, every percentage move in BABA is magnified twofold on a daily basis—making portfolio-level diversification analysis less relevant than understanding Alibaba's business segments: Core Commerce (Taobao, Tmall, Alibaba.com), Cloud Intelligence, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives. When BABA shares experience sharp directional moves, BABX amplifies those swings dramatically in both directions.
GraniteShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF (BABX) Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the 30-day period ending July 30, 2026, BABX surged approximately 43%, climbing from $13.86 to $19.82. This explosive move represented a powerful recovery from deeply depressed levels after the fund had fallen to multi-month lows in late June. The rally was not linear—intra-period volatility remained elevated, with daily swings of 5% to 10% occurring frequently as BABA itself experienced wide trading ranges.
The quarterly picture tells a starkly different story. Over the approximately 90-day period from late April through late July, BABX declined roughly 26%, falling from around $26.81 to $19.82. This decline reflects the leveraged compounding effect of BABA's sustained drawdown during May and June, when the underlying ADR lost more than 25% of its value amid a confluence of negative headlines. The asymmetric return profile—a steep quarterly loss followed by a sharp 30-day rebound—exemplifies the extreme volatility inherent in daily leveraged single-stock ETFs. I also verified the price data points against broader sector moves via Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to confirm the timing of the inflection.
What Drove BABX Price in the Last 30 Days
The 30-day surge in BABX was almost entirely a function of BABA's powerful recovery from its late-June lows. The underlying ADR rebounded from approximately $92–$96 in the final week of June to above $116 by late July—a gain of more than 20% that the 2x leveraged fund magnified.
Several catalysts drove the turnaround. First, Chinese regulators approved the integration of Alibaba's Qwen AI model into Apple Intelligence features for the China market, marking a significant validation of Alibaba's AI capabilities and opening a major distribution channel. Second, Microsoft's strong fiscal fourth-quarter earnings—featuring Azure revenue growth of 43% year-over-year—lifted global cloud and AI sentiment, and Alibaba Cloud, which had been accelerating to approximately 38–40% revenue growth with AI-related products contributing roughly 30% of external cloud revenues, benefited from the halo effect. Third, declining expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes improved risk appetite for emerging-market and Chinese technology equities.
Morgan Stanley reiterated BABA as a top pick in early July, citing Alibaba's position as the largest cloud infrastructure provider in China and expected market share gains during the AI cycle. Multiple Wall Street analysts maintained buy ratings with price targets implying 50–60% upside from July levels. This institutional support, combined with deeply oversold technical conditions, created a potent environment for the sharp rebound that BABX amplified.
What Drove BABX Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly decline of approximately 26% in BABX was driven by a punishing selloff in BABA that intensified from mid-May through late June. The downturn was triggered by Alibaba's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report on May 13, which revealed an operating loss—the company's first since early 2021—and a collapse in adjusted EBITA of 84% year-over-year. Although revenue grew 3%, heavy spending on AI infrastructure, cloud capacity, and quick-commerce initiatives pushed free cash flow deeply into negative territory, raising concerns about capital allocation and future profitability.
The selloff accelerated in early June when the U.S. Department of Defense added Alibaba to its list of Chinese military-linked companies, compounding geopolitical risk. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest liquidated nearly its entire BABA position in June, adding to selling pressure. China's 618 shopping festival produced underwhelming sales figures, and several analyst firms—including Daiwa, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley—cut their BABA price targets. By June 25–26, BABA had fallen to approximately $92–$95, its lowest level in over a year. BABX, with its 2x daily leverage, was disproportionately hit during this cascade of negative catalysts, exacerbated by the compounding effects of volatile downward daily moves.
BABX ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, BABX's trajectory will remain tightly coupled to BABA's price action, and several factors warrant close attention. On the positive side, Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence segment is accelerating, with AI-related revenues expected to surpass 50% of external cloud revenue within approximately 12 months. The Qwen AI model's integration into Apple's China ecosystem could unlock a substantial new revenue stream. Additionally, Alibaba's balance sheet remains strong, with over RMB520 billion in cash and liquid investments providing a buffer against continued negative free cash flow.
On the risk side, Alibaba's capital expenditure is expected to overshoot its original RMB380 billion target as AI infrastructure needs expand, potentially prolonging cash flow weakness. The Pentagon's blacklist designation remains in force and could restrict procurement-related business. A €550 million European Commission fine against AliExpress for Digital Services Act violations adds regulatory uncertainty. Alibaba's upcoming fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings report in late August will be a critical event: consensus estimates point to approximately $1.94 in earnings per share (EPS), and any deviation could trigger outsized moves in BABX given the 2x leverage structure.
Macroeconomic factors—including U.S.-China trade relations, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the pace of global AI adoption—will continue to shape sentiment toward Chinese technology equities. For traders using BABX, the essential consideration remains that daily resetting leverage magnifies both opportunity and risk. Holding periods beyond a single trading day introduce compounding effects that can cause returns to deviate materially from 2x the underlying stock's cumulative performance, particularly in volatile, range-bound, or trending-lower markets.
Using Tickeron AI Tools in My Research
When evaluating high-volatility products like BABX, I regularly rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to scan for momentum shifts, technical patterns, and volatility signals across the market. The platform helps surface relevant data points quickly and supports more informed timing decisions around leveraged instruments. It has become a practical part of my workflow for monitoring names tied to single-stock ETFs and sector rotation themes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
My name is Jimmy, and I’m a financial analyst focused on identifying compelling opportunities across the ETF market. Each day, I analyze hundreds of ETFs to uncover potential trading and investment opportunities using a broad range of market factors. For short-term trading, I rely heavily on technical analysis, including price channels, momentum indicators, support and resistance levels, trend patterns, and other market signals. At the same time, I dedicate significant attention to evaluating ETFs from a long-term investment perspective. My objective is to build a well-balanced ETF portfolio that combines core investment holdings with more tactical and speculative positions. The goal is to create a portfolio that can participate effectively in market rallies while also remaining resilient during periods of volatility and market corrections.
BABX's Stochastic Oscillator drives into overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for BABX moved into overbought territory on October 13, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BABX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for BABX entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BABX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BABX as a result. In 54 of 60 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BABX just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where BABX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 35 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +5.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BABX advanced for three days, in 173 of 196 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
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