GraniteShares 2x Long NBIS Daily ETF (NBIL) Delivers +strong performance Over 30 Days as Nebius Shares Rebound

Key Takeaways

• NBIL rose roughly 28% over the trailing 30 days as underlying Nebius Group shares rebounded sharply off their late-July lows following a blowout quarterly report.
• The fund seeks 2x (200%) daily leveraged exposure to a single stock, Nebius Group (NBIS), amplifying both gains and losses versus the underlying security.
• Nebius reported second-quarter revenue up 454% year over year to $582.3 million, with annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) reaching $3 billion and adjusted EBITDA turning positive.
• Despite the 30-day rebound, NBIL remains down roughly 36% over the last three months, reflecting a steep July drawdown and the volatility drag inherent in daily-reset leveraged funds.
• Elevated short interest in Nebius, estimated near 25% before earnings, contributed to a violent short-covering rally after the results.

Understanding the NBIL ETF and Its Exposure to Nebius

NBIL is an actively managed, leveraged single-stock ETF that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, equal to 200% of the daily percentage change in the common stock of Nebius Group N.V., an Amsterdam-headquartered AI cloud ("neocloud") company listed on Nasdaq. The fund achieves its exposure primarily through swap agreements and options on Nebius shares, supplemented by direct purchases of the underlying stock.

Because the strategy is built around one issuer, the portfolio does not carry traditional sector or holding diversification. Effectively all of the fund's risk is concentrated in Nebius, an information technology company operating in the AI infrastructure and cloud computing segment. The fund carries a net annual expense ratio of approximately 1.50% and has roughly $150 million in net assets. It launched in October 2025. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.

This single-stock, daily-reset structure is central to understanding NBIL's recent behavior: a move in Nebius shares is magnified roughly twofold on any given trading day, while compounding and volatility decay cause returns over periods longer than one day to diverge from a simple 2x multiple of the underlying stock's cumulative performance.

NBIL Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. the Quarter

Over the trailing 30 days, NBIL gained approximately 28%, rising from a closing level near $17.86 to roughly $22.83. The move was far from linear: the fund bottomed in late July, staged a rapid recovery, and then consolidated into the high-teens and low-$20s. On the earnings-driven session in mid-August, NBIL surged roughly 68% in a single day, reflecting the leverage applied to Nebius's own double-digit percentage advance.

The three-month picture tells a different story. Measured from late May, NBIL has declined roughly 36%, even after the 30-day recovery. The fund traded between roughly $40 and $56 through much of late May and June, peaked intraday near the mid-$60s in mid-June, then fell sharply through July as a broad risk-off wave hit high-multiple AI infrastructure names. The late-July trough near the low teens marked the low point before the earnings-driven rebound.

What Drove NBIL Price in the Last 30 Days

The dominant catalyst was Nebius's second-quarter earnings release in mid-August. Revenue of $582.3 million grew 454% year over year and exceeded consensus estimates, while the core AI cloud business expanded more than 500%. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive $236.2 million, and ARR reached $3 billion, up 598% year over year. Management reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion and raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts.

Demand and pricing strength underpinned the rally. Nebius disclosed midterm contracts yielding $20 million to $25 million per megawatt and shorter-duration, time-sensitive capacity deals commanding $40 million to $50 million per megawatt. Roughly 70% of contracts include upfront payments covering 50% to 60% of associated capital expenditure, and the company's first capacity auction cleared at its highest-ever price for the Blackwell generation of chips.

Technical and positioning factors amplified the move. With short interest in Nebius estimated near 25% before earnings, the positive surprise forced short sellers to cover, fueling a sharp one-day advance that the fund's 2x leverage compounded. A $775 million asset-backed debt facility secured in July further supported the company's capacity buildout narrative. From what I see, this short-covering dynamic was a key amplifier worth monitoring in similar situations.

What Drove NBIL Performance Over the Last Quarter

The three-month decline reflects a broader de-rating of high-multiple AI infrastructure equities rather than any single company-specific event. Through June and July, investors rotated away from richly valued AI names amid concerns over the pace and durability of AI capital spending, contributing to a drawdown in Nebius from its 52-week high. The fund's daily-reset leverage then compounded the downside: in a volatile, choppy tape, the mathematics of daily rebalancing erodes value even when the underlying stock merely moves sideways or gyrates sharply.

Short-seller attention added to the pressure. A high-profile short position in Nebius was disclosed shortly before the earnings report, intensifying scrutiny of the stock's valuation, which stood at an elevated multiple of trailing sales even as revenue grew rapidly. The subsequent earnings beat reversed much of this sentiment, but the quarter as a whole remained deeply negative for the leveraged fund.

NBIL ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next

Several themes are likely to shape NBIL going forward. Execution on Nebius's 5-gigawatt contracted power target is the central variable: the company's valuation depends on its ability to convert capacity into grid-connected, revenue-generating compute. Investors should monitor capacity deployment pace, ARR progression, and whether short-duration premium pricing persists.

The broader AI capital-expenditure cycle also matters. Signs of slowing hyperscaler spending, changes in AI compute supply-demand balance, or shifts in financing conditions could weigh on sentiment. Interest rates and inflation remain relevant, as higher-for-longer rates can pressure both growth-stock valuations and the cost of capital-intensive buildouts.

Finally, the fund's structure deserves ongoing attention. Daily-reset 2x leverage introduces volatility decay and compounding risk that make NBIL unsuitable for long-term buy-and-hold positioning. Elevated valuation multiples, short-interest dynamics, and the potential for sharp single-day swings in Nebius shares all represent material risks to monitor. These factors will likely drive the fund's volatility more than any single data point in the months ahead. I'm watching this closely because the leverage math can produce outsized moves in either direction.

Using Tickeron’s AI Tools in My Research

In my own workflow, I find Tickeron’s AI Screener helpful when evaluating leveraged products like NBIL alongside the broader AI infrastructure space. It lets me quickly scan for comparable technical setups, volatility patterns, and sector peers using a mix of indicators and AI signals. This approach has been useful for spotting how single-stock leveraged ETFs behave relative to their underlying names during earnings seasons or sector rotations.

Disclaimer

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Contributor

Jimmy Landsman|Expert

My name is Jimmy, and I’m a financial analyst focused on identifying compelling opportunities across the ETF market. Each day, I analyze hundreds of ETFs to uncover potential trading and investment opportunities using a broad range of market factors. For short-term trading, I rely heavily on technical analysis, including price channels, momentum indicators, support and resistance levels, trend patterns, and other market signals. At the same time, I dedicate significant attention to evaluating ETFs from a long-term investment perspective. My objective is to build a well-balanced ETF portfolio that combines core investment holdings with more tactical and speculative positions. The goal is to create a portfolio that can participate effectively in market rallies while also remaining resilient during periods of volatility and market corrections.

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