GET DAILY SIGNALSGray Media (GTN) Delivers Strong Q3 Revenue Growth on Record Political Ads
Key Takeaways
- Gray Media reported total revenue of $972 million for the third quarter of 2026, up roughly 29.8% year over year and slightly above consensus estimates.
- GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings per share came in at $0.66, below analyst expectations of around $0.87 to $0.88.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached $319 million, topping consensus estimates of approximately $307 million.
- Net income attributable to common stockholders was $78 million, a sharp improvement from the prior-year period.
- Political advertising revenue hit a third-quarter record of $198 million, exceeding the company's updated guidance range of $188 million to $195 million.
- Management guided fourth-quarter revenue to a midpoint of roughly $1.13 billion, above Wall Street consensus of about $1.07 billion.
Why These Results Matter
Gray Media, one of the largest local broadcast television groups in the United States, operates a portfolio of top-rated stations across dozens of markets. Its results are closely tied to political advertising cycles, core (non-political) ad demand, and retransmission fees paid by pay-TV distributors. Because 2026 is a midterm election year, investors viewed this report as a key test of whether the company could convert political spending into meaningful revenue and cash flow while managing elevated leverage. The quarter also reflected the early integration of several 2026 station acquisitions. With debt reduction a central focus, results provided important signals on both top-line momentum and the company's progress in strengthening its balance sheet ahead of a non-political 2027.
Breaking Down the Q3 Numbers
For the three-month period ended September 30, 2026, Gray Media posted total revenue of $972 million, up about 29.8% from $749 million a year earlier and slightly above the consensus estimate of roughly $959 million. The revenue beat was driven largely by record political advertising, which totaled $198 million for the quarter and exceeded the company's updated guidance of $188 million to $195 million. To put the numbers in context across the sector, I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener.
On the bottom line, the company reported GAAP earnings per share of $0.66, missing consensus estimates of approximately $0.87. Adjusted EBITDA of $319 million came in ahead of the roughly $307 million analysts expected. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $78 million, compared with a loss in the prior-year quarter. Net retransmission revenue was $150 million, at the high end of management's guidance range, while digital revenue grew about 12% year over year.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares edged higher in immediate after-market trading following the release, as investors weighed a revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat against an earnings per share miss. The stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue guidance — anchored by a projected record of $319 million to $329 million in fourth-quarter political advertising — appeared to support sentiment. At the same time, the GAAP EPS shortfall and softer core advertising trends, which management said were pacing down low-to-mid single digits, kept the reaction measured. The results reinforced a broader narrative that Gray Media's 2026 political season is exceptionally strong, while also highlighting that core advertising demand remains uneven in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Political advertising remains the dominant near-term catalyst. Management now expects full-year 2026 political advertising revenue of $630 million to $640 million, a new company record that surpasses the prior high of roughly $600 million set during the 2020 presidential cycle. Fourth-quarter political revenue alone is guided to $319 million to $329 million.
Balance-sheet progress will be another area to watch. The company has reduced its 10.5% first-lien notes by roughly $1 billion, and management said it anticipates additional debt reduction of $175 million to $200 million this year, along with at least $40 million in lower interest costs next year from refinancing activity.
Investors should also monitor core advertising and digital momentum. Core ad trends are pacing down low-to-mid single digits entering the fourth quarter, while digital revenue continues to grow at a healthy double-digit rate. Net retransmission revenue is expected to approach the company's 2023 high of about $595 million for the full year, and integration savings from recent acquisitions should begin lowering station expenses materially in the fourth quarter. How Gray Media manages the transition into a non-political 2027 will likely shape the next phase of investor focus.
Using Tickeron’s AI Tools for Deeper Analysis
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics. It helps surface relevant comparisons and trend signals without spending hours on manual work, which has proven useful when evaluating names like GTN alongside peers.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GTN in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
GTN moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 34 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GTN as a result. In 63 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GTN just turned positive on November 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where GTN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +7.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GTN advanced for three days, in 210 of 272 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GTN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
GTN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GTN entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 10 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.236) is normal, around the industry mean (3.435). P/E Ratio (-8.414) is within average values for comparable stocks, (112.350). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.122) is also within normal values, averaging (1.298). Dividend Yield (0.066) settles around the average of (0.045) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.148) is also within normal values, averaging (8.232).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GTN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GTN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 97, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of television broadcasting services
Industry Broadcasting
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