GET DAILY SIGNALSGreif (GEF) Delivers +50% Adjusted EPS Growth on Cost Optimization
Key Takeaways
- Greif reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 net sales of $1.14 billion, topping the consensus estimate of roughly $1.09 billion.
- GAAP Class A earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.11, weighed down by impairment charges tied to the Sweetwater paperboard mill closure and an unusually high effective tax rate.
- Adjusted Class A EPS rose 50% year over year to $0.87, underscoring the benefit of the company's cost-optimization program.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $163 million, while adjusted free cash flow fell 52% to $83.3 million.
- Management introduced fiscal 2027 guidance with a low end of $645 million in adjusted EBITDA and $290 million in adjusted free cash flow.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Greif’s fiscal fourth quarter closes out a year shaped more by internal efficiency efforts than by any broad demand rebound. The industrial packaging company has focused on structural cost cuts, lifting its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook in the third quarter and pointing to the first sequential demand improvement in several periods. This report is important because it shows whether those earnings gains can hold and whether the inventory-related cash-flow dip was simply a timing matter. With end markets still soft and no bottom call from management, attention stays on margin strength, free cash flow conversion, and progress toward the fiscal 2027 cost-savings goal.
Reported Results
Greif posted fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 net sales of $1.14 billion, beating the roughly $1.09 billion consensus. On a GAAP basis, Class A EPS came in at a loss of $0.11 versus the $1.16 analyst estimate, mainly because of impairment charges from the Sweetwater paperboard mill closure and an effective tax rate of 118.6%. Stripping out those items, adjusted Class A EPS climbed 50% year over year to $0.87. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $163 million, though the prior-year quarter benefited from favorable incentive-accrual timing. Adjusted free cash flow dropped 52% to $83.3 million. At the segment level, Customized Polymer Solutions, Durable Metal Solutions, and Innovative Closure Solutions all recorded higher net sales, while Sustainable Fiber Solutions showed an operating loss tied to the mill impairment. Management set fiscal 2027 guidance with a low end of $645 million in adjusted EBITDA and $290 million in adjusted free cash flow.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment ahead of the release was cautious. GEF stock had pulled back after an earlier run, and investors were looking for confirmation that cost-driven earnings improvements would persist against softer industrial demand and a softer cash-flow picture. The mixed outcome—revenue above expectations but a GAAP loss from one-time items—keeps focus on the difference between reported numbers and underlying operations. The Sweetwater impairment and high tax rate add noise, yet the +50% adjusted EPS increase and the new fiscal 2027 outlook give a clearer view of the self-help path.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, the key question is whether Greif can maintain margin expansion without a meaningful demand recovery. The company has already achieved a $90 million annual run rate on cost savings ahead of schedule and still targets $120 million for fiscal 2027, so execution remains the main near-term earnings driver if end markets stay weak.
Free cash flow conversion is another focus area. Management linked the earlier reduction to higher inventory and restructuring costs, and the fourth-quarter figure will indicate whether working capital is normalizing. Ongoing inventory pressure could raise doubts about how well earnings gains convert to cash.
Segment trends also warrant watching. Resin price swings, the roughly $20 million Middle East demand impact, and fiber margin pressure from rising costs before price hikes are all variables that could influence results. The fiscal 2027 guidance on adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow will set the baseline as investors evaluate whether the cost-focused approach can deliver through the cycle.
Exploring Tickeron’s AI Tools for Stock Analysis
In my own research process, I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener useful for quickly filtering industrial names and comparing fundamentals against peers. It lets users apply technical patterns, volatility measures, and AI signals to narrow down ideas without manual effort, which helps when tracking companies like Greif amid shifting sector conditions. The tool has become a regular part of how I review earnings reports and sector trends.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GEF's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GEF turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where GEF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GEF's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GEF as a result. In 53 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
GEF moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GEF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GEF advanced for three days, in 185 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
GEF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GEF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for GEF entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GEF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.570) is normal, around the industry mean (1.373). P/E Ratio (25.250) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.527). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.070) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.868) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of industrial packaging products and services
Industry ContainersPackaging
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