GET DAILY SIGNALSLam Research (LRCX): Path to the $365 Analyst Target After the Recent Pullback
Key Takeaways
- The $365 central target is the rounded arithmetic mean of 34 verified analyst price targets, whose raw average is $364.03.
- Individual targets span a wide $255 to $500 range, signaling unusually strong disagreement among analysts.
- At a latest verified close of $200.44 (Nov. 6, 2026), reaching $365 would require roughly an 82% gain, a very large move.
- Most analysts rate the stock Buy or Outperform, but several trimmed targets after the October earnings report.
- Supportive factors include record revenue, a $25 billion buyback authorization, and an upbeat 2027 wafer fab equipment outlook.
- Key risks include a stock still trading roughly 54% below its June peak, cyclical equipment demand, and technical weakness.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
The $365 central target is calculated from 34 individual analyst price targets compiled by S&P Global, with a raw arithmetic mean of $364.03 rounded to $365. The full range runs from a low of $255 to a high of $500, a spread that reflects genuine disagreement about how much of the semiconductor equipment cycle is already priced in.
Recent actions illustrate the split. After the October 2026 earnings release, Mizuho (Vijay Rakesh) trimmed its target to $360 from $365 while keeping an Outperform rating, and UBS lowered its target to $400 from $425. Morgan Stanley set an Overweight rating with a $339 target, Needham cut its target to $290, and Bernstein reduced its target to $350 from $385. On the bullish end, Citigroup held a $435 target, Oppenheimer and TD Cowen reiterated $400, Goldman Sachs maintained $380, RBC Capital's Srini Pajjuri reiterated a $380 target, and DBS carried a $416 target. The consensus rating across the group is broadly Buy to Strong Buy, though Zacks downgraded the stock to Hold in late October. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
At a latest verified close of $200.44, the stock would need to rise about 82% to reach $365, a very large move by any standard. The path matters as much as the distance: LRCX traded as high as $438.50 in June 2026 before a multi-month pullback, so the target sits below that prior peak even as it sits far above the current price. The company's latest quarter was strong, with revenue of $8.22 billion (up 54.4% year over year) and EPS of $2.20, narrowly beating consensus, while December-quarter guidance of $8.6 billion in revenue and $2.33 in EPS came in slightly above expectations. Management sees global wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending rising more than 29% in 2027 to above $200 billion.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Record revenue and margin expansion, with gross margin of 52.4% and a 75% jump in net income in the latest quarter.
- A newly authorized $25 billion share repurchase program, signaling management confidence in long-term cash generation.
- Deep exposure to AI-driven chip demand across NAND, HBM, and advanced logic, where Lam holds leading etch and deposition positions.
- Analyst expectations for roughly 20% revenue growth next fiscal year, with EPS forecast to rise materially.
- Several firms retaining or setting targets near or above $400, arguing the pullback is overdone relative to the 2027 equipment cycle.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
- A stock trading about 54% below its June peak reflects investor concern that cycle assumptions may soften.
- Semiconductor equipment is deeply cyclical, and any slowdown in memory or foundry capital spending could compress estimates.
- A TTM P/E ratio near 30 leaves limited room for multiple expansion if growth slows.
- Guidance shortfalls, as seen in the October selloff when December-quarter outlook disappointed some investors, can trigger sharp drawdowns.
- Wide analyst disagreement, with the $255 low suggesting some see limited upside from current levels.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
LRCX trades below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day average near $294 and the 200-day near $284, both of which now sit as overhead resistance. The 52-week range spans $135.50 to $438.50, and the stock's November rebound from around $185 followed the buyback announcement. The $200 psychological level is an important near-term floor, while any durable recovery would first need to reclaim the $260-to-$300 moving-average zone before a move toward $365 becomes technically credible.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, and the $364 average should be read in that context rather than as a short-term call. Investors should watch the next earnings report (estimated for late January 2027), forward guidance on WFE spending, analyst target revisions, memory-chip pricing, and any changes to the capital-return program. Macroeconomic signals on interest rates and AI infrastructure spending will also shape the equipment cycle that ultimately determines whether these targets are realistic. From what I see, tracking these elements closely helps clarify the setup.
Incorporating AI Tools Into My Research
In my own analysis workflow, Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals provide a useful layer of data-driven insight. The tool monitors thousands of stocks and ETFs in real time, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on technical behavior and market conditions. For names like LRCX in the semiconductor space, these signals offer a complementary perspective that sits alongside traditional research and helps flag potential shifts more efficiently.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
LRCX's RSI Indicator stays in oversold zone for 2 days
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LRCX advanced for three days, in 272 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
LRCX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LRCX as a result. In 53 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LRCX turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 57 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
LRCX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LRCX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LRCX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator for LRCX entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LRCX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LRCX's P/B Ratio (20.114) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.670). P/E Ratio (34.618) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). LRCX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.463) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.620) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of semiconductor processing equipment
Industry ElectronicProductionEquipment
Advertisement