GET DAILY SIGNALSMARA Holdings (MARA) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Anticipating a -27% Revenue Decline
Key Takeaways
- MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) is scheduled to report its third quarter 2026 results, for the period ended September 30, 2026, after the market close on Monday, November 9, 2026.
- Wall Street consensus points to a loss of roughly $0.39 per share on revenue near $183 million, which would represent a year-over-year revenue decline of about 27%.
- The company's last report missed expectations, with a second-quarter 2026 loss of $1.60 per share on revenue of $174.88 million, pressured by a decline in Bitcoin prices and unrealized mark-to-market losses on digital assets.
- Investors will focus on how MARA's shift toward artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure is offsetting volatility in its legacy Bitcoin mining business.
- Management guidance and progress on the Long Ridge Energy acquisition, which is expected to add roughly $144 million in annualized EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), will be closely watched.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
MARA Holdings is a digital energy and infrastructure company best known as one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners, now pivoting aggressively toward AI and HPC data centers. This earnings report matters because it will reveal whether the company's strategic transformation is translating into financial results. Bitcoin's price decline weighed heavily on prior quarters, and investors are eager to see whether diversified, contracted power revenue can provide stability. The quarter will also test MARA's ability to fund growth without excessive equity dilution, a concern management has directly addressed in recent calls. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts expect MARA to report a loss of approximately $0.39 per share for the third quarter of 2026, with revenue near $183 million. That compares with a loss of $0.32 per share on revenue of $252.41 million in the year-ago quarter, implying a revenue decline of roughly 27%. The company has historically beaten consensus estimates in only two of its last eight quarters, underscoring the difficulty of forecasting a business tied to crypto prices and non-cash digital asset accounting. Investors will also scrutinize management's forward guidance, Bitcoin holdings valuation, energized power capacity, and the status of major data center tenants and the Long Ridge Energy acquisition.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the report remains cautious after MARA's second-quarter miss triggered a notable post-earnings decline. The stock has exhibited a negative post-earnings announcement drift since August, reflecting skepticism about near-term profitability. Key risk factors include further Bitcoin price weakness, additional mark-to-market losses on digital assets, and uncertainty around the timing and economics of the AI infrastructure pivot. Conversely, positive commentary on tenant leasing, power capacity expansion, and cost discipline could support sentiment. The market will likely respond most to guidance and any update on the Long Ridge deal rather than the headline loss itself.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Beyond the third-quarter numbers, investors should monitor several forward-looking catalysts. First, the closing and integration of the Long Ridge Energy and Power acquisition is central to MARA's strategy of becoming a leading AI and HPC infrastructure owner, given its already-energized power capacity and contracted cash flows.
Second, watch for updates on tenant leasing activity and the Matagorda, Texas development site, where MARA is pursuing large-scale data center opportunities. The pace at which prospective tenants convert to signed leases will signal whether AI power demand is translating into contracted revenue.
Third, Bitcoin price movements and MARA's treasury strategy remain important. The company has emphasized Bitcoin monetization over equity dilution to fund operations, so investors should track its cash and Bitcoin balances, debt reduction progress, and any changes to its convertible debt position.
Finally, monitor cost trends and margin performance as the company realigns its organization around the infrastructure strategy. Management has projected improving quarterly profitability, but execution against that guidance will be the key test of credibility heading into 2027. From what I see, these elements will shape the longer-term narrative.
Using AI Tools for Stock Analysis
In preparing for earnings seasons like this one, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to filter opportunities across sectors. It helps identify technical patterns, fundamentals, and volatility signals in a structured way, which is particularly useful for names like MARA that span crypto and emerging infrastructure themes. This approach keeps my review efficient without replacing deeper fundamental work.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for MARA turns negative, indicating new downward trend
MARA saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 79 of the 87 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MARA turned negative on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
MARA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MARA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for MARA moved below the 200-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MARA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for MARA entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +7.46% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MARA advanced for three days, in 234 of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
MARA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MARA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.496) is normal, around the industry mean (3.059). P/E Ratio (-0.685) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.833). MARA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.140) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (8.748) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.097) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MARA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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